Bonds Analysis

Investors are drawn to the attractive carry offered by Italy's and Spain's 10-year bonds compared to German Bunds. This analysis provides a trigger map for managing the inherent risks in these...

In 2026, with inflation cooling but not collapsing, bond market dynamics are increasingly dictated by supply schedules and auction results, rather than traditional economic calendar releases.

France's 2026 budget passage has reduced immediate political uncertainty, but the real test for its OAT bonds lies in upcoming supply auctions and how the market prices fiscal risk.

This analysis delves into the current shape of the US Treasury curve, highlighting the outperformances of the belly amidst expectations of Federal Reserve policy easing.

A VIX reading around 20 signals a 'nervous calm' in markets, profoundly influencing rates trading through convexity and hedging flows. Understanding the interplay between equity and rates...

The bond market is currently navigating conflicting signals: softer US inflation data and rising energy prices. This piece explores how these dynamics influence the fixed-income landscape,...

While attention often focuses on government bond yields, hidden risks in credit markets can pose significant challenges to portfolios, especially when rates stabilize. Understanding spread...

Mexico's 10-year bond yield at 8.8% offers a tempting carry, but investors must navigate significant duration, FX, and risk sentiment exposures. This analysis delves into the hidden risks and...

India's bond market is grappling with a supply-demand imbalance, leading to elevated 10-year sovereign bond yields. Traders are increasingly pushing for government buybacks as a crucial mechanism...

Australia's 10-year government bond yield reaching 4.7% underscores that the 'higher for longer' interest rate environment is a global phenomenon, extending beyond the US. This analysis explores...

Japan's 10-year government bond (JGB) yields, currently around 2.21%, are no longer just domestic news; they're a critical driver of global interest rate volatility and capital flows, as domestic...

UK Gilts navigate a complex landscape where domestic economic data and fiscal credibility interact with broader global duration trends, influencing yields and market volatility.

Euro duration has found its footing as a 'stability asset,' with Bund yields easing and peripheral spreads remaining surprisingly calm despite fiscal headlines, indicating a current 'benign...

A recent strong 30-year bond auction signals structural demand for long duration, defying bond vigilante narratives and limiting term premium expansion, despite persistent supply concerns.

A softer January CPI print has emboldened hopes for mid-year rate cuts, yet the bond market's long-end tells a story of persistent caution, driven by sticky term premium and supply dynamics. This...

Despite recent negative sentiment, bonds remain a crucial component of a well-diversified portfolio. This analysis explains why their current positioning, improved expected returns, and hedging...

When equity volatility spikes, it significantly impacts bond market microstructure, influencing liquidity, hedging behaviors, and execution conditions, even before direct recessionary concerns emerge.

Emerging Market local bonds offer attractive yields, but their appeal is deeply intertwined with currency stability and global risk appetite. This analysis explores how FX risk can negate carry...

Despite a positively sloped U.S. yield curve, it's crucial to understand the underlying drivers of steepness. Not all steep curves signal economic recovery; some reflect heightened term premium...

With US 10-year TIPS real yields at 1.8% and nominals near 4.1%, the implied breakeven indicates inflation expectations are anchored in the low-to-mid 2s. This analysis delves into how CPI prints...