Why is crude oil rising despite a strong US dollar?

Crude oil is currently rising due to idiosyncratic supply risks, specifically geopolitical tensions in Middle East shipping lanes and unexpected weekly inventory draws.

What are the key price levels for WTI oil today?

The market is using $63.60 as a current reference, with psychological resistance at $64.87 and support near $62.33.

How does the DXY impact oil prices?

Typically, a stronger DXY makes oil more expensive for holders of other currencies, creating a headwind. However, supply-side risks can cause oil to decouple from the dollar.

Crude Oil Price Analysis: $63.60 Level Test | FXPremiere

Crude oil prices rose to $63.60 as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and tightening inventory data offset a firm US Dollar and elevated Treasury yields.

Crude oil prices are demonstrating significant resilience in today's session, with current market mechanics suggesting that idiosyncratic supply risks are successfully counteracting broader macroeconomic headwinds. As of February 4, 2026, the energy complex is navigating a landscape where a firm US Dollar and elevated yields typically weigh on commodities, yet WTI has managed a 0.62% daily gain to trade near the 63.602 level.

Geopolitical Risk Premium and Inventory Dynamics

The primary driver for the current strength in the UKOIL price live and broader crude benchmarks is a renewed geopolitical risk premium. Market participants are actively repricing tail risks associated with Middle East shipping lanes. This escalation risk in the physical market is providing a necessary buffer against an uneven global risk appetite. When analyzing the UKOIL chart live, it becomes evident that the market is placing a higher probability on supply disruptions rather than immediate demand destruction.

Furthermore, inventory optics have returned to the forefront of the narrative. Reported weekly draws are tightening near-term balances, providing fundamental support to the front of the curve. While the DXY remains steady at 97.43, the UKOIL live chart reflects a decoupling from traditional currency correlations as the market focuses on the physical tightness of the complex.

Technical Map: Support and Resistance Zones

From a risk management perspective, the UKOIL realtime environment remains volatile but structured. Traders are closely watching the 64.874 area as a key psychological resistance zone. Conversely, the 62.330 level serves as a significant lower boundary. If the UKOIL live rate maintains acceptance above the current reference of 63.602, the path of least resistance appears to be a test of the upper psychological bands.

Scenario Analysis: Consolidation vs. Extension

Our base case (60% probability) suggests a period of consolidation as the market awaits fresh confirmation from physical trade data. However, should geopolitical headlines intensify, we could see an extension of the current rally. In a oil live chart context, a rally without confirmation from prompt spreads is often paper-driven and vulnerable to sharp reversals. Monitoring oil price action in relation to deferred months is essential for identifying true conviction in the trend.

The Macro Friction and Positioning Discipline

While oil chart patterns look constructive, the macro friction from the US Treasury market cannot be ignored, with the 10Y yield hovering at 4.29%. After the recent violent two-way price action, the oil live session requires strict positioning discipline. It is vital to treat large moves as information about liquidity rather than absolute forecasts.

Looking ahead, traders should observe whether crude oil leads or lags adjacent energy contracts. Leadership in the current environment often signals institutional conviction. If crude continues to firm while USD strength persists, it confirms that supply-side idiosyncratic risks have become the dominant regime driver for the month.