What is a retest in AAVE trading?

After price breaks a key level like $156.53, it often returns to that level. A hold confirms the move, while a failure back into the range invalidates the breakout.

Is AAVE currently in a trend or a range?

Currently, AAVE exhibits churn near the $150.00 pivot, which indicates a range-bound environment until price accepts levels above $156.53 or below $154.16.

How should I manage risk in this choppy market?

Use smaller position sizes and avoid over-trading. Only enter at the edges of the range and ensure your stop-loss is defined before taking the trade.

Aave (AAVE) Trading Strategy & Pivot Levels | FXPremiere

Aave faces defensive macro pressure as it hovers near the $150 pivot. Learn how to trade the current range and key resistance at $156.53.

Aave (AAVE) is currently trading at $154.63, reflecting a modest intraday decline of 0.71% as total crypto market capitalization hovers near the $3.0T mark. As a DeFi bellwether, AAVE remains highly sensitive to macro gating factors, specifically interest rate expectations and broad risk appetite, which continue to drive intraday beta across liquid altcoins.

Market Context: The Macro Gating Factor

The current market regime is characterized by a two-way defensive bias. Liquidity across the crypto sector is being dictated by front-end rate shocks. When rates reprice, high-beta assets like Aave are typically the first to feel the impact before the sentiment percolates into majors like Bitcoin and Ethereum. With the intraday range compressed between $154.16 and $156.53, the tape suggests a period of necessary patience for disciplined traders.

Technical Structure and Key Levels

The $150.00 level serves as the primary decision line and pivot gate for the current session. Technical acceptance beyond this level after a retest provides a clearer signal, while repeated churn around the pivot suggests a lack of immediate edge.

Pivot / Decision Line: $150.00
Immediate Resistance: $156.53
Line-in-the-Sand: $160.00
Support Zone: $150.00

Trading Scenarios for January 25, 2026

Base Case: Persistent Range (65% Probability)

The most likely outcome is a continuation of the current range. Traders should prioritize disciplined fades at the extremes ($154.16 – $156.53) and look for confirmed retests rather than chasing initial impulses. In this environment, wicks without acceptance are considered noise.

Bullish Extension (18% Probability)

An upside breakout requires a clean acceptance above the $160.00 mark. Traders should prefer buy-on-pullback strategies if this level is reclaimed and held on a retest, targeting a shift in macro sentiment.

Downside Reversal (17% Probability)

A loss of the $140.00 support level without a quick reclaim would shift the bias toward capital preservation. In this scenario, exposure should be reduced as the market signals a deeper defensive rotation.

Strategic Implementation

For day traders, the strategy involves buying near $154.16 if defended and selling near $156.53 if rallies stall. Breakout plays should only be executed after a retest holds beyond these boundaries. Swing traders should treat the $150.00 pivot as a simple exposure filter: maintain higher confidence above the line and keep risk lighter below it.

Avoid common traps such as over-trading the middle of the range where the risk/reward ratio is poor, or moving stop-losses after entry due to uncomfortable tape action. If the pivot flips repeatedly, the market is signaling chop; in such cases, trade less or reduce position size.