Bittensor (TAO) Price Analysis: Trading the $240.00 Pivot Level

Bittensor (TAO) displayed a two-way, downward-skewed price action during the January 22 session, as market participants grappled with consistent structural resistance and a lack of trend follow-through. Currently trading at $239.51, TAO remains a high-beta play on the artificial intelligence narrative, requiring disciplined risk management and patience from traders across all horizons.

Technical Market Map: Key TAO Levels

The current market structure for Bittensor is defined by a clear intraday range. With volatility remaining a core characteristic of the asset, the following levels serve as the framework for the current session:

• The Ceiling: $248.41 (Resistance)
• The Decision Line: $240.00 (Pivot)
• The Floor: $235.67 (Support)

Session profiles indicated that Asia was largely stop-led, London remained selective, and New York attempted several trend move starts that ultimately lacked the momentum to break the range.

Strategic Trading Plans

Day Traders

Focus on the retest. If TAO spikes toward resistance, do not chase; wait for the secondary test to define risk levels. If the price action becomes excessively choppy, stepping back is the preferred edge. Pick a single level—either the $240.00 pivot or the $235.67 floor—and ignore noise outside of these zones.

Swing Traders

Use time as your primary filter. If TAO cannot hold a breakout level after several hours, the regime is likely still range-bound. Avoid averaging down on failed breakouts; instead, reduce exposure and only scale in once the market confirms a directional shift with sustained volume.

Long-Term Investors

Monitor TAO's performance relative to broader crypto leaders like Bitcoin. If the asset consistently underperforms during strong market tapes, consider rebalancing. It is vital to separate your 'trade' and 'hold' allocations to prevent emotional decision-making during AI sector volatility.

Probability-Weighted Scenarios

Base Case: Range Persistence (58%)

Mean reversion remains the default expectation. Trading the edges of the $235.67–$248.41 range continues to offer the highest probability of success until a catalyst forces a breakout.

Risk-On Extension (18%)

A sustained hold above $248.41 would shift the bias higher. In this scenario, traders should look to buy pullbacks as the AI narrative regains momentum.

Risk-Off Reversal (24%)

Losing the $235.67 floor without a quick reclaim suggests a deeper correction. The first target for a breakdown move is $225.67. High-concurrency assets like Ethereum should be watched for cross-market sentiment clues.

Triggers and Risk Control

• Bull Trigger: Reclaim and hold above $240.00 with the formation of higher lows.
• Bear Trigger: Failure to reclaim $240.00 after losing the $235.67 support.

In a choppy tape, survival is the priority. If the next session opens with a significant gap, reduce position sizes and wait for the first retest to confirm the new price floor.

Related Reading

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