Hedera (HBAR) Strategy: Key Pivot Levels and Trading Plan for Jan 22

Hedera (HBAR) exhibited an active but downward-skewed session on January 22, 2026, with price action centering on risk mitigation over aggressive positioning as the token retreated toward key support floors.

As of 20:16 UTC, HBAR is trading at $0.108441, down 2.18% within a daily range of $0.107052 to $0.111154. The current market structure suggests a grinding environment where HBAR benefits most from contained volatility and broad market constructive regimes. Market participation remains steady, leaving the asset highly sensitive to technical level breaks.

Technical Map: Support and Resistance

The current technical landscape defines three critical zones for HBAR traders:

• The Floor: $0.107052 serves as the near-term support level.
• The Decision Line: $0.110000 acts as the central pivot and filter for directional bias.
• The Ceiling: $0.111154 represents the immediate resistance cap.

Practical Trading Strategies

Day Traders

In this environment, discipline is paramount. Use price alerts rather than emotional triggers. Predefine your entry, stop-loss, and target levels before price action reaches them. If the pivot level at $0.110000 flips repeatedly without direction, it denotes a "no edge" zone. If chopped out twice in a single session, the optimal strategy is to wait for the next volatility cycle.

Swing Traders

Focus on daily closes rather than intraday wicks. If a breakout above $0.111154 fails quickly, reduce exposure immediately rather than averaging down. Scaling into positions should only occur after the market provides structural confirmation of direction.

Long-Term Investors

Volatility should be treated as a structural feature of the asset. Stagger entries and avoid "all-in" timing. Establish profit-taking rules early to mitigate emotional regret, and only add to positions on weakness if the underlying bullish thesis remains intact and the long-term structure has not broken down.

Probability-Weighted Scenarios

• Base Case (62%): Mean reversion remains the default behavior. Range-bound trading between $0.1070 and $0.1111 continues to reward disciplined entries.
• Risk-On Extension (24%): A sustained hold above the $0.111154 ceiling shifts the bias higher. Traders should look to buy pullbacks in this scenario.
• Risk-Off Reversal (14%): Losing the $0.107052 floor without a quick reclaim necessitates risk reduction while waiting for a fresh stabilization zone.

Strategic Setup Watchlist

Breakdown Plan: Enter short only if HBAR holds below $0.107052 after a retest; set stop-loss above $0.110000; initial target at $0.097052.

Range Plan: Sell between $0.106154–$0.111154; set stop-loss above $0.116154; targets at $0.110000 and $0.107052.

As the market moves into the next session, the primary bull trigger is a reclaim and hold above $0.110000 with higher lows. Conversely, a failure to reclaim that pivot after losing the $0.1070 support confirms a bearish bias.

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