Uniswap (UNI) Price Analysis: Navigating the $4.8500 Decision Pivot

Uniswap (UNI) is currently navigating a high-volatility environment as the token tests the critical $4.8500 decision line following a 3.58% decline. With the broader DeFi sector showing mixed participation, price action remains skewed to the downside, demanding a disciplined approach to current technical levels.

UNI Technical Snapshot and Market Map

During the January 22 session, UNI experienced a wide trading range between $4.7900 and $5.0300. The intraday tape was characterized by early probes and mid-session compression, culminating in a significant decision point during US trading hours. As Uniswap often tracks broader DeFi appetite, its performance may lag leading Layer-1 assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum before seeing catch-up liquidity.

Key Levels to Watch

• Near-Term Floor: $4.7900
• The Decision Line (Pivot): $4.8500
• Immediate Ceiling: $5.0300

Practical Trading Strategies for UNI

Day Trading Approach

For intraday participants, the $4.8500 pivot is the line in the sand. If the price flips this level repeatedly without establishing a trend, it is considered a "no-edge" zone. Traders should focus on a single level to execute trades rather than chasing mid-range noise. If stopped out twice in one session, the optimal strategy is to step aside until a clearer structure emerges.

Swing Trading and Long-Term Outlook

Swing traders should validate UNI strength against Bitcoin's price action near $90,000 and Ethereum's support levels to ensure the move isn't a fakeout. A high-quality entry requires a confirmed candle close beyond the level followed by a successful retest. For long-term holders, staggering entries on weakness is advised only while the primary bullish thesis remains intact and structural floors hold.

Probability-Weighted Scenarios

Base Case (63% Probability)

Volatility is expected to remain elevated. The focus should be on trading retests of established levels rather than chasing initial breakouts or breakdowns. Expect the $4.7900 to $5.0300 range to dictate the tape.

Risk-On Extension (23% Probability)

A sustained hold above $5.0300 would shift the primary bias to the upside. In this scenario, traders should look for pullbacks to former resistance as a sign of newfound support strength.

Risk-Off Reversal (14% Probability)

Losing the $4.7900 floor without an immediate reclaim suggests a deeper correction. Risk should be reduced significantly, with eyes on the $4.7400 target zone.

Watchlist Setups

• Range Sell Plan: Sell between $5.0012–$5.0300; Stop loss > $5.0588; Targets: $4.8500 and $4.7900.
• Breakdown Plan: Enter only if UNI holds below $4.7900 after a retest; Stop loss > $4.8500; Target: $4.7400.

Related Reading

• Bitcoin Analysis: BTC Trading Strategy Near $90,000 Decision Level
• Ethereum (ETH) Strategy: Practical Trading Plan for Jan 22
• Solana (SOL) Price Analysis: Testing the $130.00 Decision Pivot