Advance Auto Parts (AAP) Earnings: Turnaround Hopes Fuel Pre-Market Surge

Advance Auto Parts (AAP) is experiencing a robust pre-market surge today, February 13, 2026, as investors react positively to the company's Q4 earnings report and its forward-looking guidance for 2026. The optics for a potential turnaround are improving, with the guidance doing significant heavy lifting in shaping market sentiment around the stock's future.

AAP Earnings Report: A Glimmer of Turnaround

The market's initial reaction, observing AAP earnings before the opening bell, shows the stock trading significantly higher. At 12:17 London / 07:17 New York, AAP moved from a last close of $58.22 (-2.36% on Thursday) to an impressive pre-market $65.00, marking an 11.65% increase. This positions the stock above its prior-day range of $55.78 – $61.79, with 61.80 acting as a prior range top and 65.00 now serving as a critical gap pivot. This move suggests that the positive momentum is driven by forward-year confidence rather than merely a backward-looking quarter. Traders watching the AAP price live are focused on sustaining this breakout.

The headline takeaway from this report is precisely the kind of news the market craves when the prospect of a turnaround is actively being debated. We're seeing a clean beat on earnings, constructive comparable sales figures, and guidance that paints a picture of tangible margin recovery. What truly matters here isn't just the numerical beat, but the clear directional shift in the operating model.

Key Performance Indicators and 2026 Outlook

The crucial numbers that generated this bullish impulse include:

• Q4 Adjusted EPS: $0.86, substantially exceeding the consensus estimate of $0.43.
• Q4 Revenue: Approximately $2.0 billion, surpassing expectations of around $1.95 billion.
• Comparable Sales: A positive 1.1% for the quarter, with noticeable momentum building towards the end of the period.
• 2026 Outlook: This is where the guidance truly shines:
• EPS: Projected between $2.40 and $3.10.
• Revenue: Forecasted at $8.49 billion to $8.58 billion.
• Comparable Sales Growth: Expected to be in the range of +1.0% to +2.0%.
• Adjusted Operating Margin: A significant increase to 3.8% to 4.5%.

It's worth noting that Q4 benefited from an extra week compared to the previous year, contributing to both sales and EPS. However, the market is quickly factoring this out, and the sustained bullish sentiment is clearly stemming from the promising 2026 margin and comparable sales ranges, not this calendar effect. Investors seeking the latest AAP chart live will keenly observe how these fundamentals are absorbed into the stock's valuation.

Market Framing and Execution Risks

The market is interpreting this report through a 'credibility ladder' framework:

1. Stabilize Comps: Achieved with positive comparable sales.
2. Stop Margin Leakage: Addressed by the improved margin guidance.
3. Prove Repeatability: This remains an open question, with execution risk still present.

While the report significantly upgrades the base case for Advance Auto Parts, it doesn't entirely eliminate the operational risk premium. This is why the stock's behavior around the critical gap levels post-open will be more telling than the initial surge. The AAP realtime data will be invaluable for short-term decision-making.

Potential Execution Risks

Several factors could still derail this turnaround narrative:

• Mix and Price: Price increases often provide a temporary boost. If competitors quickly retaliate, this advantage could diminish.
• Labor and Store Execution: The guidance depends on enhanced store-level productivity. Any negative developments regarding staffing or service levels could face market punishment.
• Inventory and Shrink: A resurgence in working capital ballooning would make the perceived improvements seem less sustainable.

Tactical Map and Scenario Planning for AAP

Given the significant pre-market trading activity above the prior session's high, the initial hour after the New York open will be a crucial 'gap acceptance' test for AAP's momentum.

• $65 Area: This is the key gap pivot. A sustained hold above this level indicates buyers are truly willing to pay for the improved 2026 margin trajectory for the AAP live rate.
• $61.80: The prior range top. This level is a common retracement magnet. If it holds during any pullback, it would confirm that the current gap is being defended by bulls.
• $58–$56: This represents the failure zone. A retracement back into the prior closing price or range would signal that the market is not yet ready to fully endorse the turnaround narrative. The AAP price in this zone would be a cause for concern.

Scenario Set (Probability-Weighted)

• Base Case (55%): Gap holds partially; consolidation above $62. The catalyst would be management confirming that the 2026 margin uplift stems from durable levers, not one-off events. Price response would see initial volatility, followed by stabilization within a $62–$66 band. Invalidation would be any sign of a guidance walk-back or evidence that comp strength was limited to a narrow window.
• Bull Case (30%): Gap-and-go trend if the call adds incremental confidence. A detailed articulation of how the margin band will be achieved (supply chain efficiencies, price discipline, labor productivity), combined with strong early-year trading, would be the catalyst. Price response could see $66+ become sticky, with potential to push toward the high-$60s/$70s if the broader consumer discretionary sector cooperates. Invalidation would be any indication of competitive price pressure impacting gross margins.
• Bear Case (15%): Fade the gap on 'quality' concerns. The market might deem the beat calendar-driven and the guidance overly conservative on revenue, leaving execution skepticism intact. Price response would involve a quick retrace to $61.80, with risk of slipping towards $58 if selling accelerates. Invalidation would be a persistent bid even on intraday pullbacks, signaling a genuine re-rating.

What to Watch Next for Advance Auto Parts

Traders should closely monitor the New York open for gap acceptance. The first 30-60 minutes will reveal if the buying is from 'real money' fundamental investors or 'fast money' covering short positions. Pay attention to management's tone during the earnings call, specifically their confidence in delivering the 3.8-4.5% operating margin and any potential roadblocks. Lastly, keep an eye on forward indicators, such as early 2026 commentary on ticket size, customer traffic, and fulfillment performance, as these will provide real-time insights into the health of the Advance Auto Parts live chart.

Bottom Line: AAP is being rewarded not just for a strong quarter, but for presenting a more credible path to recovery in 2026. If the AAP live price can hold the mid-$60s gap pivot, or staunchly defend the $61.80 level on pullbacks, the market is signaling a true re-rating of the turnaround's probability.