What was the US consumer sentiment reading for February 2026?

The preliminary reading for February 2026 was 57.3, indicating that household confidence remains at historically low levels.

What are current US inflation expectations?

Inflation expectations stand at 3.5% for the one-year outlook and 3.4% for the long-term, remaining above the Federal Reserve's 2% target.

How does consumer sentiment affect the US Dollar?

Weak sentiment can suggest a slowdown in economic growth, which may lead to shifts in the DXY as investors anticipate changes in Federal Reserve interest rate policy.

US Consumer Sentiment & Inflation Expectations | Feb 2026

Preliminary February readings show US consumer sentiment at 57.3, as households balance moderating inflation against persistent cost-of-living pressures.

The preliminary February reading of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey offered a clear message: households remain uneasy, and the US economy is still carrying a confidence deficit even as inflation pressures moderate.

The headline index printed at 57.3, keeping sentiment at depressed levels. For traders monitoring the broader dollar basket, the DXY price live and the DXY realtime data remains sensitive to these shifts in household outlook. Inflation expectations were 3.5% for the year ahead and 3.4% for the longer run, a configuration that markets watch closely because expectations can influence wage bargaining and pricing behavior. Assessing the DXY live rate alongside these expectations is crucial for understanding the Federal Reserve's next move.

Why Consumer Sentiment Matters

Consumer sentiment is not a hard spending measure, but it helps explain turning points in discretionary consumption, durable goods demand, and credit behavior. When confidence is low, households tend to delay big-ticket purchases, increase precautionary savings, and become more sensitive to labor market headlines. Monitoring the DXY chart live and the DXY live chart reveals how the market prices in this potential for cooling domestic demand.

A print in the high-50s suggests that households are still weighing uncertainty about employment stability, purchasing power, and the direction of interest rates. Even if incomes are growing, higher borrowing costs can suppress the willingness to spend on housing-related and credit-financed categories. We often see this reflected in currency volatility as the US Dollar price shifts in response to domestic data. Indeed, observing the US Dollar live trends provides a baseline for how global investors perceive US economic resilience.

Inflation Expectations: The Policy Hinge

The one-year inflation expectation at 3.5% is meaningfully lower than the peaks seen earlier in the cycle, but it remains above a 2% target-consistent path. The longer-run expectation at 3.4% is especially important because policymakers worry about de-anchoring. If long-run expectations drift higher, inflation can become more persistent through a self-reinforcing mechanism. Traders checking the US Dollar chart will note that persistence in these expectations often supports a "higher for longer" interest rate narrative.

The February reading does not show a new de-anchoring event, but it also does not show a clear re-anchoring to 2%. In other words, the data supports the idea of gradual disinflation, but it keeps the inflation risk premium alive. Those following the US Dollar live chart will likely see immediate price action when these survey details diverge from consensus.

The Confidence Gap Explained

There are three primary reasons sentiment can stay weak even if inflation is easing:

Level effects: Prices are still higher than households were used to before the inflation shock. Even if the rate of change is lower, the absolute cost-of-living remains painful.
Interest rate drag: Higher rates raise the cost of mortgages, auto loans, and credit cards, directly affecting household budgets.
Labor uncertainty: Even without a spike in layoffs, slower hiring can undermine confidence.

Implications for Consumption

Weak sentiment does not necessarily mean consumption will contract, especially if household balance sheets are still solid. However, it does suggest that spending growth could become more uneven. Critical insights can be found in our US Labor Market Analysis, which details how hiring momentum is slowing. If the labor market continues to cool, households may shift from cautious to defensive, a transition that often shows up first in this survey data before hitting retail sales volumes.

In conclusion, February’s consumer sentiment reading underscores a persistent confidence deficit. While inflation expectations are not worsening, they remain above a comfortable level for the Fed. For market participants, monitoring the US Dollar price live is essential as the economy remains on this delicate path between disinflation and cooling growth.