AUD/JPY Strategy: Trading the 108.00 Pivot as Bearish Pressure Mounts

The AUD/JPY cross enters the Monday, January 26, 2026 session displaying a heavy profile following a -0.86% decline in the previous liquid session. As the market resets around the 108.00 pivot, traders should prioritize retest quality over initial momentum, especially as liquidity builds during the London and New York handovers.

AUD/JPY Decision Map and Figure Magnets

Interpreting the AUD JPY price live requires a disciplined focus on decision points rather than speculative narratives. The market closed below the primary pivot of 108.00, establishing a tactical bias for the upcoming session: below this level, rallies are likely to be sold; above it, pullbacks are more likely to find buyers.

Key Technical Levels

• Pivot Point: 108.00
• Resistance Ladder: 109.00 → 109.50 → 110.25
• Support Ladder: 107.25 → 106.75 → 106.00
• Psychological Magnet: 107.00

Session Handover Markers

When monitoring the AUD JPY live chart, the quality of the retest during liquidity transitions provides the most significant execution edge:

• 06:35 London: Initial impulse and range definition.
• 12:20 London: Price discovery and validation of retest quality.
• 11:25 New York: Final confirmation of trend continuation versus rotational churn.

A genuine shift in the AUD to JPY live rate usually requires acceptance beyond these boundaries across multiple liquidity windows. While one session can move price, it takes two sessions to validate a new regime.

Conditional Scenario Grid

1. Base Case (60%): Rotational price action toward the pivot with range tactics prevailing between 107.25 and 109.00.
2. Bullish Upside (20%): Acceptance above 109.00 targets 109.50 and 110.25. This scenario is invalidated if the 108.00 pivot is lost.
3. Bearish Downside (20%): Acceptance below 107.25 targets 106.75 and 106.00. This scenario is invalidated if the 108.00 pivot is reclaimed.

Execution Edge and Risk Management

For those tracking the AUD JPY realtime view, the implementation rule is simple: treat the first break as a signal and the subsequent retest as the trade. High-quality breaks are characterized by compressed volatility on the retest. If price immediately snaps back toward the pivot, it is likely a liquidity trap.

Traders should also perform a cluster check. If correlated pairs, such as those analyzed in our AUD/JPY Strategy from the previous session, are not aligned, trend probability drops. In such regimes, prioritize mean reversion to the pivot and reduce exposure to breakout chasing.

Finally, utilize realized range for risk sizing. If volatility is expanding, reduce leverage and widen stops to accommodate the higher noise levels. The goal is consistent risk application across changing volatility regimes.

Educational market commentary only; not investment advice.

Related Reading

• AUD/JPY Strategy: Trading the 108.00 Pivot as Bearish Pressure Mounts