AUD/JPY Technical Analysis: Navigating the 109.50 Pivot Magnet

The AUD/JPY pair enters the February 9th session anchored by a central pivot at 109.504, with price discovery currently dictated by a tug-of-war between range rotation and a potential test of the 110.000 figure magnet. As the market navigates these levels, traders must distinguish between mere price probes and genuine regime shifts.

Technical Outlook and Pivot Regime

As of the snapshot at 09:00 UTC, the AUDJPY price live indicates a market seeking direction. The primary anchor for today's session is the 109.500 level. We view this as the definitive regime line; while the pair holds above this mark, the bias remains conservatively bullish, favoring a buy-on-dips approach toward higher resistance. However, the AUD JPY price is currently compressed within a narrow corridor, suggesting that the most likely scenario—with a 55% probability—is continued rotation between 109.000 and 110.000.

Monitoring the AUD JPY chart live reveals that liquidity pocket behavior often sharpens risk-adjusted returns after large daily bars. For tactical execution, the AUD JPY live chart should be used to identify pullback compression, which often tightens signal quality. Traders should observe the AUD JPY realtime data closely during the London and New York handovers to see if the 110.000 figure acts as a ceiling or a gateway to 111.000.

Strategic Execution Scenarios

The path of least resistance is defined by our probability-weighted scenarios. Our base case expects the AUD JPY live rate to oscillate around the pivot. Should we see a breakout, the upside scenario (25% probability) requires aud jpy live acceptance above 110.000 followed by a protected retest. Conversely, a downside shift (20% probability) would be triggered by a failure to hold 109.000, opening the door to 108.500.

Key Levels to Watch:

• Resistance: 110.000 (Major Magnet), 110.500, 111.000
• Pivot: 109.500
• Support: 109.000, 108.500, 108.000

When analyzing the AUD JPY chart live, remember that "figure magnet" mechanics often sharpen expectancy. If the 110.000 handle is protected on a retest, the probability of a trend extension significantly improves. For those tracking the Aussie Yen live, execution is best handled by entering on the retest rather than chasing the initial volatility spike.

Market Drivers and Handover Markers

Handover windows are critical for confirming trend quality. The AUD JPY price live often experiences spread widening during the Asia-to-London transition (07:45-08:30 UTC). It is essential to avoid widening stops during these periods. The first pullback in the New York morning (08:30-11:00 EST) serves as the ultimate validation test for any daily breakout initiated earlier in the session.

Related Reading:
AUD/JPY Strategy: Navigating the 109.500 Pivot Sunday Reopen
AUD/USD Analysis: Navigating 0.69750 Pivot and Aussie Levels