AUD/JPY Strategy: Trading the 110.000 Pivot Regime

The AUD/JPY cross enters the final trading session of the week pinned against the 110.000 pivot, a level acting as both a psychological magnet and a definitive regime filter for intraday price discovery.

Market Regime and Pivot Analysis

As of the London open, the AUDJPY price live indicates a market caught between rotational flow and a potential trend expansion. To navigate this, we utilize a range versus trend classifier. In a standard range day, we expect London to establish the session extremes while New York repairs price action toward the central 110.000 pivot. Conversely, a trending environment requires London to break these boundaries with New York providing the secondary confirmation. Currently, the AUD JPY price is testing the 110.000 figure, where we assume two-way flow until a protected retest occurs.

The AUD JPY live chart highlights the 110.000 handle as the core regime line. When the cross sits near such a significant figure, the AUD JPY chart live often displays increased noise; therefore, institutional acceptance above this level is mandatory before upgrading the outlook to bullish. For many traders tracking the AUD JPY realtime feed, the priority remains location over conviction, especially given the sensitivity of JPY crosses to US rate impulses.

Probability-Weighted Scenarios

Our base case, at a 62% probability, favors range rotation around the 110.000 level. In this scenario, edge trades at 110.500 or 109.500 offer the highest technical merit, provided that any transient breaks are repaired quickly. Monitoring the AUD to JPY live rate is essential here; if the price loses 110.000 and fails to reclaim it on a retest, the bias shifts toward selling rallies targeting 109.500 and 109.000.

The upside scenario (18%) involves clear acceptance above 110.500. Should the AUD/JPY price live hold this level on a reduced-volatility retest, targets extend toward 111.000 and 111.500. This view is invalidated if a sharp snap-back occurs below the pivot. On the downside (20%), a failure at the pivot could trigger a deeper rotation toward 109.000, particularly if the Aussie Yen live sentiment sours following lackluster commodity news.

Macro Lens and Friday Execution

Macro factors remain mixed. While JPY is reacting to international yield differentials, the Australian Dollar is being influenced by risk budgeting within the broader commodity complex. Rallies in AUD are currently being sold unless the USD complex softens in unison. Today's AUD JPY live chart suggests that late-session moves may be driven by position-squaring rather than fundamental shifts. Traders should avoid holding unconfirmed breaks into the weekend, as these often lack follow-through.

Related Reading: GBP/JPY Strategy: Trading the 215.000 Pivot Regime

Technical Ladder and Handover Checkpoints

• Resistance: 110.500, 111.000, 111.500
• Pivot: 110.000
• Support: 109.500, 109.000, 108.500

Key handover checkpoints include the 08:30 New York window, which will provide the final confirmation versus rotation signal. A true breakout on the AUD JPY realtime setup typically prints smaller candles on the retest—a sign of compression and acceptance. If large candles appear during the retest, the likelihood of a "fakeout" increases significantly.