EUR/AUD Trading Strategy: Navigating the 1.7145 Pivot Level

The EUR/AUD cross enters the January 24th session positioned in a neutral-to-offered stance after closing near the mid-point of its recent 1.7098–1.7192 range. As a primary expression of the high-beta risk regime, price action is currently tethered to a central pivot at 1.7145, awaiting validation from the London-New York liquidity handover.

The Message of the Bar: Weekend Framing

Following a modest -0.23% decline in the previous session, the daily candle suggests a level-driven regime where neither bulls nor bears have secured dominance beyond the established extremes. With the close located at 1.7147, the market is effectively pinned to its internal pivot, creating a tactical setup for range rotation or a potential momentum breakout if resistance at 1.7190 is cleared.

Session Handover Dynamics

• London Open (06:45 UTC): Expect initial price discovery as Asia's range is tested. This window usually defines the first impulse against the prior session's extremes.
• London Morning (10:10 UTC): Trend clarification typically occurs here, signaling whether the pair will mean-revert to the pivot or extend toward the support/resistance ladders.
• New York Open (13:15 UTC): The arrival of North American liquidity acts as the ultimate truth-teller for breakouts. Volume spikes here will validate or reject any moves initiated during the European session.

Technical Decision Points

In a market respecting boundaries, these levels serve as the roadmap for the next active trading window:

• Resistance Ladder: 1.7190 | 1.7225 | 1.7255
• The Decision Pivot: 1.7145 (Macro Filter)
• Support Ladder: 1.7100 | 1.7065 | 1.7035

Probability-Weighted Scenarios

1. The Range-Trade Base Case (60% Probability)

The most likely outcome involves continued rotation around the 1.7145 pivot. Traders should prioritize fading the extremes rather than chasing breakouts, utilizing a "sell-rally" approach toward 1.7145 if price remains capped, or pullback buys if the pivot holds as support.

2. Upside Extension (20% Probability)

Sustainable acceptance above 1.7190 opens the door for a move toward 1.7225 and 1.7255. This scenario is invalidated if the price quickly snaps back below the 1.7145 magnet, indicating a liquidity trap.

3. Downside Reversal (20% Probability)

A clean break below the 1.7100 handle suggests a shift in risk-beta sentiment, targeting 1.7065 and 1.7035. Validation requires the retest of 1.7100 to hold as new resistance.

Execution and Risk Management

To differentiate between noise and a true regime shift, traders should follow the retest rule: treat the first break as a signal and the subsequent retest with reduced volatility as the entry. Chasing first-spikes often results in entering during "liquidity need" events rather than new information regimes.

For risk sizing, if the realized range expands, traders should consider reducing leverage and widening stops to accommodate increased volatility. Conversely, inside the 1.7140/45 "figure magnet," avoid overtrading as price action typically becomes mean-reverting and low-signal.

Related Reading

• EURAUD Analysis: Pair Slips to 1.7130 Amid Risk-Beta Pressure
• EUR/CAD Analysis: Pivot Strategy as Pair Tests 1.6160 Support
• AUD/USD Analysis: Risk-Beta Flow Tests 0.6855 Resistance