GBP/AUD Strategy: Trading the 1.9755 Pivot Amid Carry Selectivity

The GBP/AUD cross entered the weekend on a constructive footing, closing at 1.9780 and maintaining a disciplined profile above the critical 1.9755 pivot. As carry selectivity remains a dominant theme, traders are looking toward the next London and New York handovers to validate whether current momentum can challenge upper resistance ladders.

Market Interpretation and Tactical Bias

Following a session high of 1.9802, the market's close above the 1.9755 pivot establishes a clear framework for the upcoming session. While this constructive profile does not guarantee immediate continuation, it sets a technical bias: pullbacks remaining above the pivot are likely to attract buyers, while a sustained break below would shift the focus toward selling rallies.

For a detailed look at previous volatility shifts in this pair, see our analysis of the GBP/AUD high-beta shift from earlier in the week.

Key Session Handover Markers

• 07:45 London: Initial impulse and range definition.
• 09:40 London: Price discovery phase and retest quality check.
• 10:25 New York: NY confirmation; determining if the trend extends or rotates.

The Decision Map: Levels to Watch

The technical structure for the next 24 hours is anchored by the 1.9755 pivot and the psychological 1.9780 figure magnet. Trading outside these boundaries requires multi-session acceptance to confirm a regime shift.

• Resistance Ladder: 1.9800, 1.9845, 1.9885
• Support Ladder: 1.9680, 1.9640, 1.9595
• Primary Pivot: 1.9755

Strategic Scenarios

1. Base Case (60% Probability)

A rotation back toward the pivot followed by range-bound tactics. Expected price action remains contained between the 1.9680 support and 1.9800 resistance levels.

2. Upside Extension (20% Probability)

Acceptance above 1.9800 targets the 1.9845 and 1.9885 levels. This scenario is invalidated if the 1.9755 pivot is lost on a closing basis.

3. Downside Correction (20% Probability)

Clean acceptance below 1.9680 opens the door for tests of 1.9640 and 1.9595. A reclaim of the pivot would invalidate this bearish move.

Implementation and Risk Management

In the current volatility regime, the quality of a retest is the most potent signal. Traders should treat the initial break of a boundary as a signal and the subsequent retest with reduced volatility as the actual trade entry. If a break fails quickly and snaps back, mean reversion toward the pivot becomes the preferred expression.

Risk sizing should scale with realized range. If the current range expands, traders should consider reducing leverage and widening stops to accommodate increased volatility. Conversely, if the range compresses, tightening stops is advisable, though overtrading inside the "figure magnet" should be strictly avoided.

Related Reading

• GBP/AUD Strategy: Navigating the 1.9740 Pivot Strategy
• GBP/USD Analysis: Trading the 1.3515 Pivot Amid Bid-Tape Rotation