GBP/CHF Strategy: Trading the 1.0680 Pivot Amid Rebalance Bias

The GBP/CHF pair enters the new trading week following a weekend session framing note that highlights a low-side close at 1.0660 and a clear decision map anchored by the 1.0680 pivot. As the market transitions through the London and New York handovers on January 24, 2026, traders are monitoring the 1.0652–1.0715 range for signs of real-money rebalancing bias.

The Technical Message: Weekend Framing

The latest daily bar for GBP/CHF showed a tight range between 1.0652 and 1.0715, ultimately closing near the lows. In level-driven regimes, this suggests that the market’s immediate message is one of consolidation with a slight offered tone. The key objective for the upcoming session is to identify whether the extremes of the prior bar will be respected or if a new information regime will take hold.

Session Handover Map

• 08:35 London: Asia close to London open. Watch for the first range-definition impulse and a test of the 1.0652 low.
• 10:30 London: Price discovery phase. This window clarifies if the pair will rotate back to the 1.0680 magnet or extend toward lower support.
• 08:25 New York: The liquidity step-up. Breakouts observed here require validation; otherwise, they risk failing back into the established range.

Decision Points and Scenario Planning

The 1.0680 level serves as the primary pivot and regime switch. Acceptance above or below this level will likely dictate the directional bias for the next multiple liquidity windows.

Key Levels to Watch

• Resistance Ladder: 1.0710 (Recent High), 1.0740, 1.0760.
• Pivot / Figure Magnet: 1.0680.
• Support Ladder: 1.0650, 1.0630, 1.0610.

Probability-Weighted Scenarios

Base Case (60%): Rotation around the 1.0680 pivot. Traders should favor fading extremes and trading the band rather than chasing breakouts in the absence of a major catalyst.

Upside Extension (20%): Acceptance above 1.0710 targets the 1.0740–1.0760 zone. This scenario is invalidated if the price quickly snaps back under the pivot.

Downside Reversal (20%): A sustained break below 1.0650 opens the door for 1.0630 and 1.0610. Reclaiming 1.0680 invalidates this bearish posture.

Macro Context and Execution Rules

Real-money rebalancing can often make Swiss Franc (CHF) pairs appear 'sticky' around psychological figures, frequently leading to false breaks when liquidity is patchy. Traders should treat the first break as a signal but wait for the retest as the actual trade entry.

When the risk tone shifts, the CHF can move independently of domestic data. It is vital to perform a correlation sanity check; if the broader GBP or CHF clusters are mixed, treat any breakout with skepticism. In these conditions, mean reversion toward the 1.0680 pivot typically offers a higher quality trade expression than trend-following.

Related Reading:

• GBP/CHF Strategy: Trading the 1.0680 Pivot Amid Range Rotation
• USD/CHF Analysis: Pivot Navigation at 0.7900 Amid Range Rotation