Uniswap (UNI) Strategy: Navigating the $4.9000 Decision Pivot

Uniswap (UNI) is currently trading with a defensive bias at $4.8800, down 1.01%, as the market continues to act as a DeFi bellwether where execution precision outweighs aggressive chasing.

Today’s market tape is characterized by a need for defined risk management. In the current environment, the market is rewarding patience and punishing late entries. For UNI, the highest-signal moments are found in the retest rather than the initial breakout; a successful hold confirms a trend attempt, while a failure signal a return to range-bound churn.

Key Tradable Levels for the Session

Traders should focus on these specific price zones to determine the intraday regime:

• Decision Line: $4.9000
• Support Zone: $4.7900
• Resistance Zone: $4.9300
• Line-in-the-Sand: $4.9500

Execution Framework and Scenarios

The primary strategy remains the Base Case (58% probability), where range persistence dominates. In this scenario, disciplined fades at the $4.7900–$4.9300 extremes remain the higher-odds approach. If the range expands significantly beyond today’s 2.87% volatility band, traders should proactively reduce position sizes.

An Upside Extension (16% probability) requires clear acceptance above the $4.9500 mark following a successful retest. Conversely, a Downside Reversal (26% probability) is triggered if UNI loses the $4.7900 floor and fails to reclaim it, shifting the priority entirely to capital preservation.

Strategic Trading Plans

Day Traders

Focus on the range plan: consider long positions in the $4.7900–$4.8200 zone if defended, and look for sell opportunities between $4.9000–$4.9300 if rallies stall. Avoid trading breaks until a retest holds above $4.9300 or below $4.7900.

Short-Term and Swing Outlook

The core rule is confirmation. Scaling into positions should only occur after UNI accepts levels beyond $4.9000 and holds the subsequent retest. If breakouts fail quickly, it is a signal to reduce risk immediately rather than averaging down into a losing position.

Common Trading Traps to Avoid

In a low-edge tape, over-trading is the most significant risk. Traders often find themselves chasing moves after the spread and volatility tax has already been paid. Additionally, avoid "timeframe mixing"—treating an intraday trade as a long-term investment simply because it has moved against your stop.

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