AUD/NZD Strategy: Trading the 1.1585 Pivot Amid Growth FX Impulse

The AUD/NZD cross enters the final week of January with a constructive technical profile, closing the last liquid session at 1.1593 (+0.37%). As the market prepares for the London and New York handovers, the 1.1585 pivot level stands as the primary filter for directional bias and risk management.

Market Context and Sunday Transition

As we transition through low-liquidity weekend trading, discipline remains paramount. Sunday session tapes often produce false breaks; therefore, traders should widen their confirmation thresholds. A break is only considered valid if a retest holds and volatility compresses. The current structure suggests that while price is above the pivot, pullbacks are likely to attract buyers, whereas a move below 1.1585 shifts the localized bias toward selling rallies.

Handover Execution Markers

To navigate the intraday volatility, traders should watch these critical time slots for potential price discovery and trend validation:

• 06:45 London: Initial impulse and range definition.
• 11:50 London: Quality check on retests and price discovery.
• 10:15 New York: Final confirmation of the trend versus a rotational decision.

The Decision Map: Key Levels to Watch

The technical landscape for AUD/NZD is defined by the following price ladders:

• Pivot Level: 1.1585
• Psychological Magnet: 1.1600 (Round Figure)
• Resistance Levels: 1.1615, 1.1635, 1.1660
• Support Levels: 1.1550, 1.1530, 1.1505

Scenario Grid for the Next Session

Based on current market geometry, there are three primary paths for the upcoming sessions:

1. Base Case (60%): Rotational price action toward the pivot with range-bound tactics remaining effective between 1.1550 and 1.1615.
2. Upside Case (20%): Sustained acceptance above 1.1615, targeting 1.1635 and 1.1660. Loss of the pivot invalidates this view.
3. Downside Case (20%): Price acceptance below 1.1550, targeting 1.1530 and 1.1505. A reclaim of the pivot invalidates this view.

Regime Filter: Range vs. Trend

Range days and trend days often appear identical during the early London session. The true differentiator is the New York handover. In a range regime, the market fails to sustain follow-through once NY liquidity arrives. In a trend regime, NY participants confirm and extend the boundaries established by London. For long-term validation, look for acceptance across multiple liquidity windows rather than a single session spike.

Traders should implement a rule of treating the first break as a signal but wait for the retest for the actual entry. If the price breaks the boundary and snaps back immediately, it is likely a trap. In these cases, mean reversion back toward the 1.1585 pivot becomes the higher-probability play.

Related Reading

• AUD/NZD Strategy: Trading the 1.1585 Pivot and Growth Impulse
• AUD/CAD Strategy: Trading the 0.9440 Pivot and Pro-Cyclical Bias
• NZD/USD Strategy: Trading the 0.5930 Pivot Amid Carry Selectivity