AUD/USD Strategy: Trading the 0.6875 Pivot in a Pro-Cyclical Tape

The AUD/USD pair enters the Monday session with a distinct pro-cyclical tone, as traders monitor the 0.6875 pivot level to determine if the early momentum can be sustained into London and New York liquidity windows.

Monday Market Framing: Positioning and Liquidity

As the new trading week begins on January 26, 2026, the focus shifts from weekend narratives to technical acceptance. In the early sessions, the first move is often a positioning reset. For those tracking AUD/USD price live, the execution edge lies in identifying whether early spikes are accepted or repaired as London liquidity enters the tape.

Key Liquidity Anchors

• 06:15 London: The transition from Asia to Europe defines the initial range and tests prior extremes.
• 12:00 London: Acceptance or rejection around the pivot decides the prevailing trend odds for the day.
• 11:55 New York: The final confirmation window determines if a boundary break is a genuine trend or a liquidity trap.

Technical Level Board: Pivot and Scenarios

The AUD to USD live rate is currently influenced by the proximity to the 0.6900 major figure. Traders should treat pivot acceptance as the primary regime filter.

Current Support and Resistance

• Resistance: 0.68950 / 0.69150 / 0.69350
• Pivot: 0.68750
• Support: 0.68350 / 0.68150 / 0.67950

Strategic Scenarios

Base Case (62% probability): Mean reversion to the 0.68750 pivot remains the dominant theme. Range tactics are preferred until a clean break is established across multiple liquidity windows.

Trend Case (18% probability): A sustained hold above the 0.68950 level (bullish) or below 0.68350 (bearish) on a successful retest would signal a move toward the outer extremes.

Trap Case (20% probability): A false break followed by a rapid return within the prior range. On a thinner Monday tape, false breaks are frequent; confirmation requires volatility to compress on the retest.

Execution Rules for the Week Ahead

When analyzing the AUD USD chart live, the quality of the retest is the ultimate signal. If the price breaks a level but fails to hold under compressed volatility, the move is likely noise. Conversely, a retest that holds with smaller candles confirms the new regime.

Related to this pro-cyclical momentum, traders may also find value in reviewing the AUD/CAD Strategy: Trading the 0.9440 Pivot and Pro-Cyclical Bias which shares similar risk-beta characteristics.

Watchlist and Setups

• Reversal Plan: Failure at 0.68950 combined with a loss of the pivot suggests selling rallies into 0.68750, targeting 0.68350.
• Range Plan: Buying between 0.68350 and 0.68750 if price action stabilizes, with a target of 0.68950 as the upper boundary.

For information and education only; not investment advice.

Related Reading:

• AUD/CAD Strategy: Trading the 0.9440 Pivot and Pro-Cyclical Bias
• AUD/NZD Strategy: Trading the 1.1585 Pivot and Growth Impulse
• AUD/USD Strategy: Trading the 0.68750 Pivot Amid Pro-Cyclical Tone