AUD/USD Strategy: Trading the 0.68750 Pivot Amid Pro-Cyclical Tone

The AUD/USD pair entered the weekend with a distinct pro-cyclical bid, closing the January 23rd session at 0.68942, up 0.79%. As market participants look toward the next active sessions, price action remains centered on the 0.68750 decision pivot and the 0.69000 psychological figure.

AUD/USD Daily Level Board

Technical structures identify a clear map for the upcoming sessions, utilizing the 0.68750 level as the primary rotational axis. Traders should monitor acceptance or rejection at the following boundaries:

• Resistance: 0.68950 / 0.69150 / 0.69350
• Decision Pivot: 0.68750
• Psychological Figure: 0.69000
• Support: 0.68350 / 0.68150 / 0.67950

Session Timeline Anchors

To successfully navigate the AUD/USD tape, timing is as critical as price. The upcoming session windows provide specific validation points:

06:15 London: The Range Definition

As the Asia close transitions into the London open, the initial range is defined. Watch for the first tests of the prior session's extremes (0.68951 high / 0.68345 low).

12:00 London: Trend Probability

The London morning session determines whether the market accepts or rejects the 0.68750 pivot. Success here dictates the odds of a sustained intraday trend.

11:55 New York: The Confirmation Window

The NY open serves as the final confirmation. Follow-through during this window distinguishes between a genuine boundary breakout and a liquidity trap.

Scenario Tree and Strategic Setups

Our baseline outlook assigns a 62% probability to mean reversion toward the 0.68750 pivot, suggesting range-bound tactics remain dominant. However, traders must remain alert to secondary outcomes:

• Trend Scenario (18%): A sustained hold above 0.68950 (bullish) or below 0.68350 (bearish) following a successful retest.
• Trap Scenario (20%): A false break followed by a rapid return to the prior range. If this occurs, reduce position sizes and prioritize mean reversion.

Execution Plans

Reversal Strategy: If price fails at the 0.68950 resistance and loses the pivot, look to sell rallies into 0.68750. Stops should be placed above 0.68950, targeting a move toward 0.68350.

Range Strategy: Should price stabilize between 0.68350 and 0.68750, look for buy entries with stops below 0.68150, targeting the 0.68950 high.

Market Regime and Risk Discipline

A genuine shift in market regime requires validation across multiple liquidity windows. While one session can move price, it takes two to validate a new trend. Traders should prioritize retest quality over initial spikes, treating the first break as a signal and the retest as the trade execution point.

Furthermore, use the realized daily range (~61 pips) as a risk input. If volatility expands, reduce leverage and widen stops; if the range compresses, tighten stops but avoid overtrading.

Related Reading

• AUD/USD Analysis: Risk-Beta Flow Tests 0.6855 Resistance
• AUD/NZD Analysis: Resistance Test at 1.1605 Amid Risk-Beta Flow
• AUD/CAD Strategy: Navigating the 0.9440 Pivot Level