CAD/JPY Strategy: Trading the 114.25 Pivot Amid Intervention Risk

The CAD/JPY cross enters the weekend with a heavy technical profile, closing at 113.76 after failing to sustain levels above the 114.25 pivot. As market participants navigate the intervention-psychology zone, the upcoming London and New York handovers will be critical for determining whether the current downside momentum transitions into a structural trend or remains a mean-reversion play.

Technical Context and Pivot Logic

Following a session high of 115.42 and a sharp decline of nearly 1%, CAD/JPY is showing clear signs of distribution near the 114.00 figure magnet. While the recent close sets a bearish bias, the 114.25 level remains the primary regime filter. Trading above this pivot favors buying pullbacks, while remaining below it suggests that rallies are likely to be met with selling pressure.

Handover Markers for the Next Session

• 08:35 London: Look for initial impulse and the definition of the session range.
• 09:30 London: Price discovery phase where the quality of retests is established.
• 11:55 New York: Final confirmation phase where the market decides between trend extension or rotation.

The Decision Map: Support and Resistance

Traders should utilize the following levels to map out price action for the next liquid session:

• Resistance Ladder: 115.50 (Primary Boundary), 116.00, 116.75
• Pivot Point: 114.25
• Support Ladder: 113.50 (Critical Support), 113.00, 112.50

Strategic Scenarios

Scenario 1: Range Rotation (60% Probability)

The base case involves standard rotation toward the pivot with range-bound tactics played between 113.50 and 115.50. In this environment, mean reversion strategies near the extremes tend to outperform breakout chasing.

Scenario 2: Bullish Acceptance (20% Probability)

Upside confirmation requires price acceptance above 115.50. Targets include 116.00 and 116.75. This scenario is invalidated if the market loses the 114.25 pivot level on a closing basis.

Scenario 3: Bearish Breakout (20% Probability)

Downside acceleration is expected if price maintains acceptance below 113.50, targeting 113.00 and 112.50. A reclaim of the pivot point invalidates the bearish outlook.

Implementation and Risk Management

A disciplined approach treats the first break of a level as a signal and the subsequent retest as the high-probability trade opportunity. If CAD/JPY breaks a boundary and retests it with lower volatility, the move is validated. Conversely, a quick "snap back" after a break suggests a liquidity trap, favoring a fade back toward the 114.25 pivot.

Risk sizing should be dynamic based on realized range. If volatility expands, traders should reduce leverage and widen stops. If the range compresses, tightening stops is appropriate, provided overtrading is avoided. The objective is to maintain stable risk per trade regardless of the prevailing volatility regime.

Related Reading

For further analysis on currency crosses and Yen sensitivity, read our recent update on CAD/JPY Tactical Strategy: Navigating the 114.75 Pivot Level.