EUR/USD Analysis: Trading the 1.1790 Pivot and 1.1820 Magnet

The EUR/USD pair closed the final liquid session of the week with a constructive profile, finishing at 1.1821 (+0.55%) and establishing a bullish bias above the critical 1.1790 pivot level heading into the January 24 weekend context.

Technical Context and Pivot Discipline

Following a session high of 1.1826 and a low of 1.1728, the Euro has demonstrated resilience against the Greenback. The current market structure suggests that while the 1.1790 level remains the primary decision point, pullbacks above this pivot are likely to attract buyers. Conversely, a sustained break below this level would shift the intraday bias toward selling rallies.

For traders navigating this setup, it is essential to distinguish between range and trend regimes. While both can appear identical during the Asian session, the New York handover typically serves as the ultimate validator of direction.

Key Handover Markers

• 08:15 London: Initial impulse and range definition.
• 09:40 London: Price discovery and retest quality assessment.
• 08:25 New York: Confirmation of trend vs. rotation decisions.

The Decision Map: Support and Resistance Ladders

The 1.1820 level is currently acting as a figure magnet, drawing price action toward the upper end of the recent realized range. Traders should monitor the following structure:

• Pivot Level: 1.1790
• Resistance Ladder: 1.1825 → 1.1860 → 1.1890
• Support Ladder: 1.1730 → 1.1695 → 1.1665

Strategic Scenario Grid

1. Base Case (60% Probability): Consolidation and rotation around the 1.1790 pivot, with tactical range trading between 1.1730 and 1.1825.
2. Upside Case (20% Probability): Acceptance above 1.1825, targeting a move toward 1.1890. This scenario is invalidated if the pivot is lost.
3. Downside Case (20% Probability): Acceptance below 1.1730, targeting 1.1665. This scenario is invalidated upon a reclaim of the pivot.

Flow, Positioning, and Retest Quality

In the current environment, retest quality serves as the primary signal, while initial spikes are often noise. A disciplined execution rule is to treat the first break as a signal and the subsequent retest as the actual trade entry. If a breakout occurs and the retest shows reduced volatility, the move is confirmed. However, an immediate "snap back" into the prior range identifies a liquidity trap, favoring mean reversion toward the pivot.

For broader context on European currency pair dynamics, traders may find the EUR/USD 1.1740 pivot analysis or the EUR/GBP range rotation notes relevant for cross-pair correlation.

Risk Management and Volatility

Traders should use realized range as a primary input for risk sizing. If the daily range expands relative to recent sessions, it is prudent to reduce leverage and widen stops. If the range compresses, stops can be tightened, though caution must be exercised to avoid overtrading within the 1.1820 figure magnet.

Related Reading

• EUR/USD Daily Levels: Navigating the 1.1740 Pivot
• EUR/GBP Analysis: Pivot Test at 0.8685