GBP/CAD Strategy: Trading the 1.8650 Pivot Amid Carry Selectivity

The GBP/CAD pair enters the January 24, 2026 session with a constructive technical profile after closing the final liquid session of the week at 1.8679. With a gain of 0.34%, price action is currently positioned above the critical 1.8650 pivot, setting a bullish bias for the upcoming London/New York handover.

Market Interpretation and Technical Bias

The market's disciplined close relative to the 1.8650 pivot suggests that while direction is never guaranteed, the path of least resistance remains skewed to the upside. In current conditions, pullbacks toward the pivot are likely to be met with buying interest, while the inverse remains true: a sustained move below 1.8650 would flip the intraday bias toward selling rallies.

Handover Timing Markers

Traders should monitor these specific liquidity windows to define the day's regime:

• 08:45 London: Initial impulse and range definition.
• 09:50 London: Price discovery and retest quality assessment.
• 11:25 New York: Trend confirmation versus rotation decision.

Strategic Decision Map

Navigating the GBP/CAD requires a clear understanding of the resistance and support ladders surrounding our primary levels.

• Decision Pivot: 1.8650
• Figure Magnet: 1.8680
• Resistance Ladder: 1.8690 → 1.8720 → 1.8750
• Support Ladder: 1.8590 → 1.8560 → 1.8530

Scenario Grid

1. Base Case (60%): Expect rotation toward the pivot with range-bound tactics effective between 1.8590 and 1.8690.
2. Upside Case (20%): Price acceptance above 1.8690 targets 1.8720 and 1.8750. This view is invalidated by a loss of the pivot.
3. Downside Case (20%): Acceptance below 1.8590 targets 1.8560 and 1.8530. This view is invalidated by a reclaim of the pivot.

Execution and Risk Management

In a "carry selectivity" regime, risk sizing must be dynamic based on realized range. If the daily range expands, traders should consider reducing leverage and widening stops to accommodate increased volatility. Conversely, during range compression, tightening stops is advisable, though one must avoid the trap of overtrading inside the 1.8680 figure magnet.

A high-quality signal is often found in retest quality rather than the initial spike. Treat the first break as a signal and the subsequent retest as the trade. If a breakout results in a low-volatility retest of the boundary, confirmation is reached. A sharp "snap back" typically indicates a liquidity trap, favoring mean reversion strategies toward the pivot.

Related Reading

• GBPCAD Analysis: Trading the 1.8630 Pivot Amid Level-Driven Rotation
• GBP/AUD Strategy: Navigating the 1.9740 Pivot Strategy