What is the key pivot level for the MOEX Index on February 1st?

The critical midpoint pivot level is identified at 4,002.59, with a decision band between 3,999.01 and 4,006.17.

What are the primary support and resistance levels for MOEX?

Immediate support is found at 3,984.67, while the primary resistance boundary to watch is 4,020.51.

How should traders handle the 4,020.51 resistance level?

If the index breaks and holds above 4,020.51, it opens the door to 4,040.22. A failure to hold above 4,006.17 after a break would invalidate the bullish move.

MOEX Index Strategy: 4,002 Pivot Level Analysis | FXPremiere

With the MOEX cash index closing at 4,001.72, we analyze the critical 4,002.59 pivot and Monday's session boundaries.

The MOEX Russia Index enters the February trading cycle navigating a complex macro overlay, characterized by a strengthening USD proxy and a sharp correction across the commodities complex. Following the last cash print of 4,001.72, the technical map for Monday’s open focuses on a tight decision band as local risk premiums begin to dominate the tape narrative.

MOEX Technical Structure and Key Levels

The current MOEX price live action suggests a market in a state of consolidation. As of the weekend carry-over, the MOEX realtime data points to a midpoint pivot of 4,002.59. Traders should monitor the decision band between 3,999.01 and 4,006.17, as this zone will likely dictate the directional bias for the upcoming London and New York handovers. On the MOEX live chart, the range size is currently calculated at approximately 35.84 points, representing a 0.90% volatility window.

Support is firmly established at 3,984.67, with a deeper structural floor located at 3,964.96. Conversely, resistance is clustered at 4,020.51, followed by the 4,040.22 level. Utilizing a MOEX chart live perspective, the quartiles at 3,993.63 (lower) and 4,011.55 (upper) provide intraday markers for momentum shifts.

Session Scenarios: Monday Outlook

Our base case, assigned a 61% probability, anticipates a rotational regime. In this scenario, the index remains trapped between 3,984.67 and 4,020.51. The primary trigger for this view is a sustained hold above 3,999.01 on dips, coupled with a rejection of 4,006.17 on rallies. The MOEX live rate must stay within these boundaries to validate rotational tactics; any acceptance beyond the 4,020.51 resistance would invalidate this neutral stance.

A secondary, more bullish scenario (23% probability) involves a clean break and acceptance above 4,020.51, targeting 4,040.22 and potentially stretching toward 4,058.14. However, should the price slip back below 4,006.17 after probing these highs, the breakout should be treated as a "fake-out." Conversely, a 16% bear case remains on the table if the index fails to reclaim 3,999.01 following a break of the 3,984.67 support.

Execution and Risk Management

For active traders, the MOEX price dynamics require patience near the gate. If a break-and-hold setup occurs above 4,020.51, look for pullbacks into 4,006.17 for entry, keeping an invalidation point at 3,999.01. Inside the 3,999.01–4,006.17 band, treat all movement as rotational. Historical behavior on the russia moex index suggests that holding above 4,011.55 is essential for maintaining bullish momentum.

Given the 13.88% slump in Silver and 1.01% drop in WTI, the energy and metals drag cannot be ignored. Traders should use the MOEX index live chart to identify if demand surfaces near 3,993.63. A failure to defend this quartile often leads to a retest of the weekly lows. Avoid overstaying edge trades, as repeated failures to clear 4,020.51 frequently result in a mean reversion toward the 4,002.59 pivot.