TSX Index Strategy: Navigating the 33,098 Pivot Post-Commodity Shock

As we transition into the first trading session of February 2026, the S&P/TSX Composite Index faces a complex landscape defined by significant weekend carry-over volatility in the commodities space. With the cash index closing Friday at 33,016.13, traders are bracing for a Monday open that must reconcile a 6% drop in gold and a stronger US Dollar.

Market Context and Commodity Headwinds

The TSX is inherently a location-first playbook, and its heavy weighting toward energy and materials makes it uniquely sensitive to the current environment. The TSX realtime data reflects a modest Friday decline of 0.08%, but the macro overlay suggests a more testing environment ahead. With WTI crude dipping to $64.76 and a sharp liquidation in precious metals, the TSX price live feed is expected to react to the strengthening USD proxy at 96.480.

For those monitoring the S&P/TSX 60 as a tradable proxy, the last available print of 1,907.60 will be the benchmark for morning liquidity. Analyzing the TSX live chart, we see a defined structure map where the midpoint resides at 33,098.47. This level acts as the primary atmospheric sensor for the session; as a trader, you should observe the TSX chart live to see if bulls can reclaim this pivot early in the Monday session.

Technical Pivot Zones and Range Map

The current volatility has established a decision band between 33,072.71 and 33,124.24. This 52-point range will serve as the "gate" for professional execution. Inside this band, the TSX live rate should be treated as rotational. However, a move outside this zone, confirmed by volume, upgrades the outlook to a trend-following regime.

Key Boundaries to Monitor:

• Resistance: 33,227.31 (Friday High), followed by 33,369.03.
• Support: 32,969.64 (Friday Low), followed by the deeper 32,827.92 zone.

When studying the tsx live chart, keep a close watch on the lower quartile at 33,034.06. In a constructive tape, demand ideally shows up here first. A failure to hold this level suggests that the market is de-risking in sympathy with the broader metals unwind.

Probability-Weighted Scenarios

Our base case (63% probability) anticipates rotation between the 32,969.64 support and 33,227.31 resistance. The trigger for this scenario is a hold above the 33,072.71 level on dips. If the tsx price successfully rejects 33,124.24 on rallies, we expect a return to the mean. Invalidation for this view occurs if we see sustained acceptance beyond the extreme boundaries of Friday’s range.

The main bullish scenario (21% probability) involves an accepted push above 33,227.31, targeting 33,369.03. Conversely, a bearish break (16% probability) below 32,969.64 would open the door to 32,827.92. Monitoring tsx realtime momentum is essential here; holding above 33,162.89 typically keeps upside momentum intact, while losing it often rotates the tape back toward the 33,098.47 pivot.

Execution and Handover Notes

Traders should use the 33,072.71 – 33,124.24 band as a filter for risk. Reclaiming 33,098.47 often opens an immediate move toward 33,124.24, which can be treated as a timing signal for intraday scalps. Avoid overstaying edge trades if the index shows repeated failure near the 33,227.31 resistance, as this frequently leads to a swift rotation back to the midpoint.

If Monday opens with immediate acceptance beyond the key levels, downgrade rotational assumptions quickly. The intersection of energy weakness and USD strength remains the primary risk factor for Canadian equities this week.

Related Reading

• TSX Index Strategy: Navigating the 32,281 Pivot Amid Commodity Stress
• Crude Oil Strategy: Trading the 66.11 Resistance and USD Headwinds
• Gold Price Analysis: Range Trade with Asymmetric Break Risks