What is the US Treasury refunding amount for February 2026?

The US Treasury has announced a $125bn refunding package, which includes 3-year, 10-year, and 30-year bond auctions scheduled for February 10-12.

How did the RBA rate hike affect the AUD?

The AUD outperformed major peers after the RBA hiked interest rates to 3.85%, citing that inflation remains above target levels.

Why is Bitcoin price dropping toward $65,000?

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has faced selling pressure due to regulatory deadlock over stablecoins and a broader shift in risk-off sentiment in global markets.

Daily FX & Crypto Analysis: Inflation vs Bond Supply | FXP

A deep dive into Eurozone inflation, US Treasury's $125bn refunding, and the RBA rate hike impact on global markets.

As global markets digest a complex mix of inflation data and significant sovereign debt supply, the macro landscape for early February 2026 remains highly sensitive to policy shifts. From the Eurozone's sticky services inflation to the US Treasury’s massive refunding schedule, traders are navigating a regime where liquidity and cost of capital are the primary drivers of price action across asset classes.

Rates and FX: Eurozone Inflation and RBA Divergence

Eurozone inflation cooled to 1.7% y/y, yet the underlying metrics tell a story of persistence. With core inflation at 2.2% and services inflation still firm at 3.2%, the ECB faces a challenging path. This environment keeps the front end of the curve steady, as the energy-driven headline drop to -4.1% y/y does not yet clear the bar for aggressive policy easing. Currently, the EURUSD price live reflects this caution, as the EUR USD price remains anchored by the lack of a clear dovish signal from Frankfurt.

In the Southern Hemisphere, the Australian Dollar has emerged as an outperformer following the RBA’s move to hike rates to 3.85%. This central bank divergence is a key theme for the EUR USD realtime tape, as capital flows toward higher-yielding currencies. For a detailed breakdown of this policy shift, see our RBA Rate Hike Analysis.

As traders monitor the EUR USD live chart, the US Treasury's upcoming $125bn refunding—including 10-year and 30-year auctions—is expected to put upward pressure on yields. This massive duration supply ensures that the EUR to USD live rate will be heavily influenced by Feb 10-12 auction results. Investors can track these shifts on any EUR USD chart live or EUR USD live chart to gauge the euro dollar live sentiment as settlement nears on February 17.

Commodities and Equities: OPEC+ Discipline and the AI Funding Story

In energy markets, OPEC+ has maintained its supply discipline by pausing planned March output increases. This decision leaves 1.65 mbpd of voluntary adjustments intact, providing a floor for crude prices amidst shifting demand forecasts. Related analysis on energy infrastructure can be found in our Geopolitics Brief. Meanwhile, the strategic bid for metals is being supported by new global "Action Plans" for critical minerals, which may include border-adjusted price floors.

On the equity front, the narrative has shifted from pure growth to the cost of capital. Oracle’s $45-50bn financing plan for 2026 highlights that AI infrastructure is now a funding challenge. This has led to a sector rotation favoring quality defensives and energy over high-beta tech. Similar trends are visible in the Oracle AI Funding Analysis.

Crypto: Bitcoin Tests Critical Psychological Levels

Digital assets have faced significant headwinds, with the BTCUSD price live dropping toward the $65,000 mark. This drawdown represents a nearly 50% retracement from 2025 highs, exacerbated by a lack of progress in stablecoin regulation. For those watching the BTC USD price, the $65k level remains a crucial area of interest on the BTC USD live chart. For further context, our report on Bitcoin's Liquidity and Policy provides deeper insights into these flows.

As the market digests these moves, the BTC USD realtime data suggests that traders are scaling into positions rather than chasing momentum. Whether viewing a BTC USD chart live or checking the BTC to USD live rate, the current bitcoin dollar live environment is characterized by thin liquidity and high sensitivity to regulatory headlines. The BTCUSD chart live currently indicates that while the policy path remains steady, sector dispersion is at its peak.

Conclusion and Implementation

The current macro framework dictates a balanced approach to risk. While the 1.7% inflation print acts as a fundamental anchor, the $125bn Treasury supply is the tactical catalyst. Traders should favor commodities as a hedge against sudden spikes in volatility, especially as EUR/USD price live action remains compressed by competing macro narratives. Keeping exposure balanced and using convex hedges will be essential as we head into the mid-month auction cycle.