USD/CHF Strategy: Trading the 0.7850 Pivot Amid Vol-Sensitive Flow

Following a significant -0.96% slide in the latest liquid session, USD/CHF closed near its lows at 0.7817, signaling a period of vol-sensitive flow as the market tests the major 0.7800 figure magnet. Trading for the week of January 24, 2026, will be defined by the market’s ability to reclaim the 0.7850 pivot or accelerate toward deeper support levels.

The Technical Message: Close Location and Ranges

The latest daily bar showed a range between 0.79146 and 0.78154, with the close situated at the extreme low side. In level-driven regimes, a close near the low suggests that while the initial impulse was bearish, the market is now entering a high-probability zone for either a technical flush or a mean-reversion move toward the daily pivot. Traders should monitor the 0.78154 low closely during the Asia-London transition for signs of immediate follow-through or exhaustion traps.

Session Handover Map: Anchoring Price Discovery

For the upcoming sessions, price discovery typically follows a three-stage validation process:

• 08:45 London: The Asia close into the London open usually provides the first range-definition impulse. Watch for tests of the prior session's extremes.
• 09:40 London: Price discovery clarifies during the London morning, determining whether the tape will rotate toward the pivot or extend the current trend.
• 10:45 New York: The NY open brings a liquidity step-up where breakouts are either validated through acceptance or fail back into the previous range.

Key Decision Points and Decision Map

The following levels serve as the framework for tactical execution:

• Resistance Ladder: 0.79100, 0.79500, 0.79800
• Decision Pivot: 0.78500 (Regime Switch)
• Support Ladder: 0.78200, 0.77800, 0.77500
• Figure Magnet: 0.78000

Probability-Weighted Scenarios

Base Case: Pivot Rotation (60% Probability)

The most likely outcome involves rotation around the 0.78500 pivot. Under this scenario, traders should favor fading the extremes and looking for mean reversion. Retests of levels are prioritized over chasing breakouts, particularly if liquidity remains patchy.

Extension and Reversal Profiles (20% Each)

An upside extension requires sustained acceptance above 0.79100, targeting 0.79500 and 0.79800. This view is invalidated if the price quickly falls back below the daily pivot. Conversely, a downside reversal accelerates on a clean break below 0.78200, opening the door to 0.77800 and 0.77500. A reclaim of the pivot invalidates the bearish bias.

Execution and Risk Checklist

To navigate the USD/CHF vol-sensitive flow, follow these implementation rules:

• The Retest Signal: Treat the first break as noise and the successful retest as the trade. If a breakout occurs and the subsequent retest of the boundary holds with lower volatility, the move is confirmed.
• Regime Filter: Use the 0.78500 pivot as a filter. If the price opens below and fails to reclaim it, focus on sell-rallies. If it holds above, prefer pullback buys.
• Volatility Adjustments: If the realized range expands, reduce leverage and widen stops to account for higher noise levels.

Macro Context: CHF as a Volatility Hedge

The Swiss Franc (CHF) continues to behave as a volatility hedge. Persistence across both the London and New York sessions is a more reliable indicator of trend than single-headline impulses. Real-money rebalancing often makes pairs like USD/CHF sticky around round numbers, such as the 0.78000 magnet, often resulting in false breaks before a true direction is established.

Related Reading

• USD/CHF Analysis: Pivot Navigation at 0.7900 Amid Range Rotation
• GBP/CHF Strategy: Trading the 1.0680 Pivot Amid Rebalance Bias
• CAD/CHF Strategy: Trading the 0.57200 Pivot Amid Real-Money Rebalance