What is the key resistance for AUD/JPY right now?

The critical resistance level noted in today's session is 108.76. A breakout above this level could target 110.00.

Where is the AUD/JPY pivot point located?

The current pivot point for AUD/JPY is 107.98, which acts as the line between bullish and bearish intraday regimes.

How do interest rates affect AUD/JPY pricing?

AUD/JPY is highly sensitive to the relative-rate lens, particularly changes in the US and Japanese front-end yields which influence carry-trade demand.

AUD/JPY Analysis: BoJ-Sensitive Pricing Tests 108.76

AUD/JPY surges +1.26% as markets rotate toward lower headline stress, with traders eyeing a critical resistance breakout at 108.76.

The AUD/JPY cross is exhibiting sharp BoJ-sensitive pricing today, trading at 108.33 with a notable +1.26% gain as market participants rotate toward a 'lower headline stress' regime without committing to a full risk-on breakout.

Market Recap: Liquidity and Sentiment Rotation

During the London and early New York sessions, AUD/JPY carved out a daily range of 106.84–108.76. While the immediate bias remains bid, the underlying tape suggests that liquidity at key psychological levels remains the primary driver. The current rates backdrop, with the 2Y at 3.618% and the 10Y at 4.251%, continues to provide a foundation for relative-rate valuation, though idiosyncratic JPY flows are increasingly dominant.

Trade Map and Critical Levels

Resistance (Hard Level): 108.76
Pivot Point: 107.98
Support (Hard Level): 106.84

The tactical playbook for the upcoming sessions is centered on the 108.76 resistance. A sustained hold above this level could clear the path for a technical extension toward 110.00 and 113.00. Conversely, a failure to defend the 106.84 support would shift the narrative toward a deeper correction targeting 106.00 and 103.00.

Strategic Outlook: The Pivot as a Regime Switch

Traders should treat the 107.98 pivot as the definitive regime switch. As long as spot price remains above the pivot and pullbacks are shallow, the market indicates a willingness to pay for the move, favoring a "buy the dip" mentality. However, should spot fail to hold the pivot on a retest, the probability shifts toward a full rotation back to the opposite edge of the range.

In the context of broader FX volatility, this pair remains sensitive to shifts in global yields. As noted in recent USD/JPY market analysis, JPY volatility often coincides with rising global rates, necessitating a cautious approach to high-beta crosses like AUD/JPY.

Execution Discipline and Risk Management

Breakouts in the current environment require confirmation. The hallmark of a high-quality move is not the initial spike beyond a level, but the subsequent retest and acceptance. If the breakout level holds on the first pullback, the move is more likely to extend. Traders should be wary of false breaks around round numbers and prioritize entries on retests with explicit stops.

Furthermore, local narratives in the Australian dollar, such as those discussed in the Australia employment shock report, can create divergence between rate expectations and spot performance. If the front-end moves and the pair does not respond, a separate risk premium is likely being charged.

Key Catalysts to Watch

The next 24–48 hours will likely revolve around US data shifting front-end pricing and central-bank communications. While data may not always be a "game changer," market positioning heading into these releases often dictates the volatility of the reaction. Focus on how spot trades after the initial event window to identify the persistent trend.