What is driving the MOEX Index sell-off?

The primary drivers are a rising trade-policy risk premium due to tariff rhetoric and firming long-end yields which have de-rated risk assets.

What are the key support levels for MOEX?

Current tactical support is found at the day low of 2,727.65, followed by the psychological pivot at 2,730.

How are safe-haven assets performing?

Safe-haven assets like Gold and Silver are outperforming markedly as investors seek protection against geopolitical tail risks.

MOEX Index Analysis: Tariff Risk Premium Rises | FXPremiere

The MOEX Russia Index faces downward pressure as rising trade-policy uncertainty and a higher geopolitical risk premium drive a global shift toward safe-haven assets.

The MOEX Russia Index retreated during the January 20 session, as global markets grappled with an intensifying tariff risk premium and a persistent bid for volatility. Amid fresh trade-policy rhetoric and a surge in defensive positioning, the Russian benchmark tracked the broader risk-off extension seen across European and U.S. equities.

Market Drivers: Geopolitics and Policy Risk

The primary catalyst for the current market de-rating is a widening distribution of trade-policy outcomes. New tariff rhetoric, specifically tied to evolving Greenland-related disputes, has forced a repricing of risk premia globally. This environment has seen a distinct cross-asset signature: rates at the long end of the curve remained firm, while high-duration assets were sold off.

In this regime, equity indices are behaving increasingly like volatility products. Higher uncertainty regarding retaliation signaling has raised discount rates, keeping equity dip-buying highly disciplined. For a deeper look at how these themes are impacting regional peers, see our previous MOEX analysis and the DE40 tariff risk update.

Session Breakdown: Risk-Off Transmission

London Session: Europe opened with a defensive tone as risk premia widened quickly. Cyclical exposures led the move lower, with rallies being consistently sold.
New York Opening: The U.S. cash open confirmed the risk-off regime. Implied volatility remained bid, and indices struggled to sustain intraday bounces.

MOEX Read-Through and Tactical Levels

The MOEX Index microstructure showed a high sensitivity to flow throughout the day. Early selling established a low of 2,727.65, and while energy prices (WTI +0.8%) provided a marginal buffer, they were insufficient to offset the macro risk impulse. The Russia-specific risk premium remained contained but sensitive to the broader global sentiment shift.

Key Technical Levels to Watch

Support: 2,727.65 (Day Low) followed by the 2,730 psychological pivot.
Resistance: 2,746.26 (Day High) and the 2,740 handle.
Regime Marker: A sustained move above 2,740 would signal volatility compression, whereas a break below 2,730 keeps left-tail risks active.

As trade policy remains a supply shock catalyst, investors should monitor the impact of tariffs on inflation to gauge long-term central bank responses.

Cross-Asset Dynamics: Safe-Haven Outperformance

Evidence of the "credibility premium" was most visible in the precious metals sector. Both Gold (+3.56%) and Silver (+6.32%) saw intense haven demand, outperforming as the USD proxy softened. This suggests that market participants are prioritizing geopolitical hedging over interest rate differentials in the immediate term.

For more on the macro backdrop of these moves, read our analysis on holiday liquidity risks and how they can distort price signals.

Forward Outlook: Scenarios for the Next 24 Hours

The base case (55% probability) suggests that risk premia will remain elevated, keeping price discovery range-bound. Until fresh de-escalation headlines emerge, rallies are likely to fade into established resistance levels. A risk-off continuation (20% probability) would be triggered by renewed retaliation signaling, potentially driving the index through the 2,727.65 support level.

Investors should maintain strict sell-the-rip discipline, using the day’s highs and lows as tactical anchors until a clear directional regime is confirmed by fresh policy data.