What is the key pivot level for AUD/JPY today?

The critical pivot level for AUD/JPY is 108.50. Holding above this level maintains a constructive intraday bias.

What are the major support and resistance levels for AUD/JPY?

Resistance is identified at 109.00 and 109.25, while support is found at 107.75 and 107.50.

How should I trade the AUD/JPY breakout?

Treat the first break as a signal and wait for a retest with reduced volatility for confirmation before entering a trade.

AUD/JPY Analysis: Trading 108.50 Pivot Strategy | FXPremiere

AUD/JPY maintains a constructive bias above the 108.50 pivot as traders weigh front-end rate shifts and risk-on sentiment.

The AUD/JPY pair demonstrated resilient price action during the January 23 session, settling near 108.50 after testing a high of 109.00. While volatility spiked during the London open and New York liquidity windows, the market transitioned into a level-respecting regime rather than a momentum-driven breakout.

Market Drivers and Catalyst Lens

Current price action is being shaped by three primary factors: front-end rate expectations, broader risk appetite, and session handovers. When front-end expectations shifted, the USD leg of the cross reacted first, while the AUD leg outperformed during periods of improved risk appetite. Notably, session handovers have acted as amplifiers for existing trends, reflecting the conviction of institutional positioning into the daily close.

AUD/JPY Scenario Grid

Base Case (62%): Range continuation remains the primary expectation, with price oscillating between 107.75 and 109.00.
Bullish Breakout (18%): Clean acceptance above 109.00 opens the door for a move toward 109.25.
Bearish Reversal (20%): A sustained break below 107.75 targets the 107.50 support zone.

Technical Structure and Decision Rules

The 108.50 level serves as the critical pivot for the next 24 hours. Maintaining price action above this level keeps the intraday bias constructive. However, a rapid fade below the pivot suggests today's gains were merely rotational, favoring a range-trading mindset over trend-following strategies.

Traders should monitor the pair's correlation with the high-beta FX complex. If AUD/JPY deviates significantly from its usual cluster, expect a mean-reverting move rather than a sustained extension. In such environments, technical fades at extremes often offer higher probability than chasing breakouts.

Execution Edge: The Signal vs. The Trade

In the current choppy regime, the highest quality execution comes from treating the first break of a level as a signal and the successful retest as the trade. If the market breaks a boundary and immediately snaps back, it likely indicates a "liquidity trap," signaling a move back toward the daily pivot.

Practical Decision Filter:

If price holds above the pivot and prints higher lows, treat pullbacks as buyable opportunities.
If price remains below the pivot and prints lower highs, treat rallies as sellable until the pivot is reclaimed.

Risk Management Note

Given the current realized range (107.75 – 109.00), traders should calibrate position sizes based on volatility. If the range expands, reducing leverage and widening stops is prudent to survive liquidity spikes. Conversely, if the range compresses, tightening stops is advisable, though overtrading must be avoided. Real validation of a trend shift requires price acceptance beyond key boundaries across multiple liquidity windows.