What is the key resistance level for GB100 today?

The critical resistance gate is identified at 45.60, with the 45.50 level serving as the primary pivot for the session.

How did the US Dollar impact the FTSE 100 proxy?

A softer US Dollar (UUP -0.88%) eased financial conditions, allowing non-US indices like the GB100 to grind higher.

What is the base case scenario for the GB100?

The base case is a range-higher grind (61% probability) assuming funding conditions remain benign and the 45.50 pivot holds.

GB100 Tactical Analysis: FTSE 100 45.60 Resistance Gate

The FTSE 100 proxy shows bullish resilience as it tests the critical 45.60 resistance gate following a period of USD-led financial easing.

The GB100 (FTSE 100 proxy) entered the weekend on a constructive footing, closing the January 23rd session at 45.57 (+1.15%) as market participants favored a 'confirmation tape' over speculative momentum. While risk appetite remains intact, the index now faces a critical decision band between the 45.50 pivot and the 45.60 resistance gate, where acceptance will dictate the next leg of the 2026 macro narrative.

Market Drivers: Financial Conditions and Commodity Strength

The recent price action was primarily governed by a shift in global financial conditions. A softening US Dollar (UUP -0.88%) provided a necessary reprieve for non-US equity beta, easing marginal tightening pressures. Concurrently, a significant surge in metals (SLV +6.63%, GLD +1.36%) reinforced a unique market posture: investors are adding risk exposure while simultaneously maintaining robust defensive hedges.

Key Session Dynamics

Asia-London Handover: Two-way price action dominated the open, with early retests establishing a tentative bullish bias.
London Morning: Intraday pullbacks were consistently absorbed, suggesting a "buy-the-dip" mentality with shallow invalidation.
New York Session: Liquidity thickening led to higher signal quality, where false breaks were quickly identified and mean-reverted.

Technical Levels: The 45.50-45.60 Decision Band

As analyzed in our previous FTSE 100 brief, technical hurdles remain the primary barrier to a sustained breakout. The current framework identifies 45.60 as the "Gate"—the level where price acceptance must occur to shift the regime from range-bound to trending.

Upside and Downside Scenarios

The base case, calculated at a 61% probability, suggests a continued grind higher as long as funding conditions remain benign. Sustained daily acceptance above 45.60 would open the technical scope toward the 45.85 level. Conversely, a failure to hold the 45.50 pivot re-opens the downside toward 45.35, potentially triggered by a rebound in the USD or a spike in volatility.

Execution Strategy and Risk Budgeting

Given the current volatility regime, FXPremiere Markets recommends a two-step scaling approach. Traders should consider initiating small positions on structure and adding only after price acceptance reduces the risk of a false break. This is a "trade the edges" environment; entries in the middle of the pivot band carry a lower reward-to-risk ratio.

Next week's focus will shift to participation and breadth. While narrow leadership can grind the index higher, a durable extension requires wider participation across the resource and financial baskets. Monitoring the relationship between UK growth signals and Eurozone divergence will also be vital, as noted in the FX Market Note on policy divergence.