What is CPIF and why does the Riksbank use it?

CPIF stands for Consumer Price Index with a fixed interest rate. The Riksbank uses it as an anchor because it removes the direct impact of mortgage rate changes on inflation data.

Did Sweden's inflation meet the target in December 2025?

Yes, CPIF inflation at 2.1% is very close to the Riksbank's 2% target, continuing the disinflation narrative.

How did the Swedish Krona (SEK) react to the inflation data?

Typically, easing inflation reduces the pressure for higher yields, which can lead to a softer tone in the SEK as market focus shifts to growth and potential rate cuts.

Sweden December CPIF Inflation Drops to 2.1% | FXPremiere

Sweden's December inflation data confirms a continuing disinflationary narrative, with the policy-relevant CPIF cooling to 2.1% y/y.

Sweden’s December inflation data has reinforced the ongoing disinflation narrative, with the policy-relevant CPIF retreating toward the Riksbank's target as energy and underlying price pressures continue to ease.

Key Inflation Prints for December 2026

The latest data from Statistics Sweden highlights a cooling trend across most major metrics, though technical distortions in headline figures remain a point of discussion for the central bank.

Sweden CPIF: 2.1% y/y in December (down from 2.3% in November).
CPIF Excluding Energy (CPIF-XE): 2.3% y/y (down from 2.4%).
Sweden CPI: Fixed at 0.3% y/y, unchanged from the previous month.
Monthly Change: 0.0% change from November to December.

Why CPIF Remains the Policy Anchor

For the Riksbank, the Consumer Price Index with a fixed interest rate (CPIF) serves as the primary gauge for monetary policy. This is because headline CPI can be heavily distorted by changes in mortgage interest costs, which often rise as the central bank hikes rates, creating a counter-intuitive feedback loop. By utilizing CPIF-XE (excluding energy), policymakers can better assess the underlying disinflationary path. The current ease toward 2% confirms that previous tightening cycles are successfully filtering through the Swedish economy.

Market Implications and Transmission

In the currency and interest rate markets, the fastest channel for this data is the front-end rates complex. As inflation stabilizes near target, the focus shifts toward growth and financial conditions. Similar to the Spain December inflation trends where core prices remained a focus, Sweden's services persistence will be the next litmus test for a total pivot.

When activity data improves alongside cooling prices, markets typically treat the situation as a 'soft landing' confirmation. However, if wage persistence or a housing market rebound triggers a second wave of services inflation, the Riksbank may be forced to delay further easing.

What to Watch Next

Investors should look for confirmation of this trend in the following areas:

Housing Indicators: Potential rebounds in property prices could reintroduce inflationary pressure.
Wage Growth: Broad-based wage increases could make services inflation stickier than expected.
Positioning: With consensus leaning toward a stabilization narrative, any negative growth surprises could trigger outsized reactions in the SEK.

As noted in our recent FX market note on policy divergence, the ability of smaller economies like Sweden to maintain target inflation while surrounding Eurozone partners face uneven growth will be a major trade driver for 2026.