What is the key support for Nasdaq 100 today?

The immediate tactical support is the day low of 25,097.50, followed by the major psychological pivot at 25,000.

Why is the Nasdaq 100 falling?

The decline is primarily driven by rising trade policy uncertainty related to tariffs and a firming of long-end interest rates which impacts high-duration growth stocks.

How are safe-haven assets reacting to US100 volatility?

There is a strong haven bid in precious metals, with Gold and Silver outperforming as investors seek protection against geopolitical and policy risks.

Nasdaq 100 Tariff Risk Analysis Jan 20 2026 | FXPremiere

The Nasdaq 100 faces downward pressure as trade policy tensions and rising term premiums drive a risk-off shift in global technology shares.

The Nasdaq 100 (US100) trended lower during the January 20 session as market participants priced in a rising tariff risk premium, catalyzed by fresh trade rhetoric and firming long-end yields. With the index shedding nearly 1%, the tech-heavy benchmark remains sensitive to duration-sensitive megacaps and AI-linked growth sectors as volatility bids persist across the board.

Market Drivers: Rates and Retaliation Risks

The primary catalyst for today’s de-rating was a dual impulse of firming rates and geopolitical tension. While equity prices slid, the back-end of the yield curve remained resilient, suggesting that a higher term premium is now being demanded by investors. This "credibility premium" was further reinforced by a significant safe-haven bid in precious metals, which outperformed as the broader risk-on sentiment faded.

Trade policy escalation risk took center stage following rhetoric tied to the Greenland dispute. This development widened the distribution of potential outcomes for global trade, pulling risk premia higher across both US and European equity markets. For a deeper look at how these policy shifts are impacting broader indices, see our Nasdaq 100 Analysis: US100 Slides on Policy-Risk Premium from yesterday’s session.

Session Breakdown: From London Open to NY Morning

European Handover: The London open saw risk premia widen rapidly, with high-duration exposures leading the decline.
NY Cash Open: The 09:30 New York open confirmed the bearish regime, as implied volatility remained bid and intraday bounces were consistently capped.
Cross-Asset Transmission: As US 10-year yields hovered around 4.288%, growth assets faced a significant de-rating, Mapping most cleanly to the megacap technology space.

Tactical Levels and Price Action

The US100 microstructure was heavily flow-aware throughout the session. Early selling established a day low of 25,097.50, and subsequent attempts to reclaim higher ground were met with sell-side pressure. This behavior aligns with a market paying for policy tail risk rather than reacting to specific economic data prints.

Key Levels to Watch

Core Support: 25,097.50 (Day Low) and 25,000 (Psychological Pivot).
Immediate Resistance: 25,250 (Regime Marker) and 25,436.00 (Day High).

A sustained move above 25,250 would suggest a compression in volatility, whereas a break below the 25,000 handle would likely keep left-tail risks and further liquidation in play. Traders should also monitor related price action in the S&P 500 to gauge broader market contagion.

Scenarios and Trade Outlook

Our base case (63% probability) suggests that risk premia will remain elevated, keeping price discovery range-bound as long as tariff-driven uncertainty persists without fresh escalation. In this scenario, we expect mean reversion around value, where rallies fade into established resistance levels.

Conversely, a risk-off continuation (17% probability) could be triggered by renewed retaliation signaling or a further spike in long-end yields, potentially driving momentum through the 25,097.50 level. For those tracking the impact of these macro shifts on other major indices, review our analysis on the DAX Slides as Tariff Risk Premium Hits German Equities.