Why is the Nasdaq 100 falling today?

The Nasdaq 100 is under pressure due to a rising policy-risk premium, driven by trade policy headlines and geopolitical uncertainty which has led to a rotation out of tech and into safe-havens like gold.

What is the key support level for US100?

The immediate intraday support is located at 25,398.25, with a secondary technical support level identified at 25,296.66.

How are gold and silver affecting the Nasdaq?

The surge in gold and silver prices reflects a high hedging bid. When macro hedging demand stays elevated, growth assets like the Nasdaq 100 often face selling pressure as investors de-risk portfolios.

Nasdaq 100 Analysis: US100 Slides 1.1% on Policy Risk

Nasdaq 100 futures slide over 1% as trade policy headlines and geopolitical risks drive a surge in defensive hedging across global markets.

The US Tech 100 (Nasdaq 100 Futures proxy) faced significant downward pressure during the January 19 session, as a rising policy-risk premium steered market sentiment toward a defensive posture. While corporate fundamentals remained secondary, headline-driven volatility concerning trade policy and geopolitics triggered a notable rotation into safe-haven assets.

Market Backdrop and Session Dynamics

As of the midday London session, the US100 was trading at 25,398.25, marking a decline of 1.13%. This move occurred within a localized range of 25,398.25–25,398.25, suggesting a heavy tone as markets moved toward the New York open. The broader macro environment supported this risk-off narrative, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) slipping 0.36% while precious metals surged; Gold gained 1.77% and Silver skyrocketed 6.49%, signaling intense hedging demand.

Session-by-Session Breakdown

Asia Handover: Markets began the day with cautious positioning and selective liquidity, setting a tentative tone for Western sessions.
London Morning: European pricing solidified the risk-off reference, with equity beta coming under pressure as macro headers dominated the tape.
NY Open Outlook: Traders are looking to the 09:30 New York cash open to determine if the move will extend through systematic de-risking or if mean-reversion will take hold.

Technical Levels and Pivot Structure

The intraday low of 25,398.25 serves as the immediate line in the sand. A failure to hold this level could trigger a momentum reset to the downside. Conversely, the session high remains the primary invalidation point for the current bearish bias.

Our pivot guide for the session is 25,398.25 (the midpoint of the current range). A sustained stay below this pivot keeps the tactical outlook defensive, while a reclaim of this level would de-risk the immediate downside case.

Weighted Probability Scenarios

1. Base Case: Range Persistence (60% Probability)

In this scenario, policy headlines remain noisy but do not escalate further. We expect mean-reversion around the daily pivot with frequent fades at resistance levels. Primary support is eyed at 25,296.66, with resistance at 25,499.84.

2. Risk-Off Reversal: Deep De-risking (20% Probability)

A fresh adverse policy headline or volatility shock could catalyze a break below support, leading to heavier selling into the lows. In this environment, defensive assets would likely continue to outperform growth-heavy indices.

3. Risk-On Extension: Relief Bid (20% Probability)

Should the risk narrative soften, an improved sentiment impulse could drive a break above resistance. This would require the cross-asset impulse (metals and DXY) to stabilize, allowing equity beta to recover.