What is the current yield on the US 10-Year Treasury?

As of the close on January 30, 2026, the US 10Y yield settled at 4.241%.

Why is the US 30-Year yield rising?

The US 30Y yield is rising due to a persistent term premium bid, driven by concerns over government bond supply and geopolitical risks.

What does a steepening yield curve indicate?

A steepening curve, like the current 2s10s slope, often suggests that the market expects future economic growth or inflation, demanding higher yields for longer durations.

Bond Market Analysis: US 30Y Yields and Term Premium Analysis

A weekend analysis of global sovereign yields, focusing on the US Treasury curve steepening and the persistent term premium in long-dated bonds.

The final trading session of January 2026 concluded with a distinct divergence across the US Treasury curve, as front-end rates remained anchored by central bank expectations while long-dated yields held a significant term premium. As of the Friday close on January 30, the US 10Y realtime yield settled at 4.241%, reflecting a market caught between restrictive policy and structural supply concerns.

Global Sovereign Yield Snapshot

Following the New York close, the US10Y price live data shows a narrow range between 4.226% and 4.265%. Meanwhile, the US 2Y yield fell slightly to 3.527%, widening the 2s10s slope to approximately 0.714pp. This steepening suggests that while the market is actively pricing in future rate cuts, investors are demanding higher compensation for holding long-duration debt amid geopolitical uncertainty.

In Europe, the Germany 10Y (Bund) closed at 2.8446%, showing a modest increase, while the UK 10Y Gilt ended at 4.525%. These movements highlight a global trend where US10Y live rate fluctuations continue to act as the primary anchor for international fixed-income pricing. Monitoring the US10Y live chart, traders can observe that the 10s30s spread remains a critical barometer for fiscal and supply-side risks.

Technical Levels and US10Y Realtime Analysis

The US10Y chart live setup points toward a central pivot at 4.245%, the midpoint of Friday’s volatile range. Should the yield push above the 4.265% resistance, we may see a further tightening in equity valuations as the market adjusts to a higher-for-longer term premium regime. Conversely, a move below 4.226% on the US10Y live chart would signal a return of duration demand, potentially coinciding with a softening US Dollar (DXY), which finished the week strong at 96.99.

For those tracking the long end of the curve, the US30Y price live at 4.872% remains the most sensitive to shifting inflation expectations. The US30Y chart live reflects a market that is no longer willing to treat duration as a "cheap" hedge, especially with WTI Crude Oil prices hovering near $65.21 and keeping breakeven rates elevated.

Macro Drivers and Weekend Risk

Positioning ahead of the upcoming Fed week remains the dominant theme. Liquidity in the US30Y realtime market often thins during the weekend, making Monday’s Asia open particularly susceptible to gap moves if geopolitical headlines shift. The US30Y live rate is also being influenced by the Japanese session, where JGB superlong pricing has become a leading indicator for global duration appetite.

As we head into February, the US30Y live chart will be essential for assessing whether the current term premium grind can sustain a test of the 5.00% psychological level. Credit strategies are currently being shaped by this "policy restrictive" configuration, which continues to whisper that supply and geopolitics are the primary drivers of the long bond's yield floor.