EUR/USD Analysis: Euro Firms as US Dollar Reprices Policy Risk

The EUR/USD pair found solid footing during the January 20 session, climbing toward 1.1717 as the U.S. Dollar faced broad selling pressure driven by a repricing of trade-policy risks. Despite a notable backup in U.S. Treasury yields, the Greenback failed to attract its typical interest-rate support, suggesting that market participants are prioritizing risk hedging and post-holiday repositioning over yield differentials.

Market Drivers: Policy Risk Overpowers Yields

The primary catalyst for Tuesday's price action was a surge in trade-policy uncertainty. Following the U.S. market reopening after the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday, investors recalibrated their exposure to the Buck. While the U.S. 2-year yield pushed toward 3.946% and the 10-year yield reached approximately 4.27%, the move was interpreted by the FX market as an amplifier of volatility rather than a bullish signal for the USD.

In Europe, the currency complex stayed remarkably resilient. The single currency benefited from a clean expression of USD weakness, especially as liquidity improved throughout the London morning and shifted into the New York open.

Session Recap: From London Open to NY Morning

During the London session, UK labor-market data provided some cross-driven volatility, but the overarching theme remained the weakness in the DXY proxy, which traded near 98.3300. By the New York open at 09:30 AM, cash equity markets showed weakness, with the S&P 500 futures sliding roughly 1.0%. This defensive tone favored safe-haven hedges like the Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen, while helping EUR/USD maintain its intraday gains above the 1.1700 psychological handle.

EUR/USD Technical Read-Through

EUR/USD closed the session at 1.1717 (+0.61%), tracing an intraday range between a low of 1.1633 and a high of 1.1768. The current market structure suggests a USD-leg repricing is the dominant force, with relative rate spreads acting as a secondary filter.

Key Levels to Watch

• Resistance: 1.1768 (Intraday High) and the 1.1802 trend extension zone.
• Pivot/Mean: 1.1706.
• Support: 1.1633 (Intraday Low) followed by the 1.1599 level.

Probability-Weighted Scenarios

Base Case (60%): EUR/USD is expected to remain headline-sensitive. In the absence of a major data shock, the pair likely persists within its current range as repositioning continues. A failure to break 1.1768 decisively could see a return to the 1.1706 pivot.

Alternative Scenarios (40%): A deepening of trade-policy headlines could accelerate a risk-off wave, driving demand further into the safe-haven complex. Conversely, a relief bid in equities could stabilize the USD, compressing the recent downside move back toward the 1.1640 open.

Related Reading

• EUR/USD Market Note: Europe Risk Premium vs Softer USD Risk Pricing
• Europe Inflation Outlook: Disinflation Meets Trade-Policy Risk
• ECB Lens on Tariffs: Growth Drag Outweighs Inflation Risk for Europe
• Macro Playbook: Using Front-End Rates to Filter Market Noise

What to Watch Next

Investors should eye the upcoming U.S. housing data on Wednesday, including Building Permits and Housing Starts at 13:30 London time. Additionally, any fresh trade-policy headlines remain the primary "gap risk" for the London and New York handovers.