Copper Market Strategy: Trading the 5.96 Pivot Amid China Demand

Copper (HG) prices edged higher during the January 28 session, trading at 5.95 $/lb as market participants balanced a softening US Dollar against evolving demand narratives from China and ongoing smelter constraints.

Market Regime and Snapshot

The HG copper price live tape shows an opening at 5.95 with a tight intraday range between 5.91 and 6.00. Currently, the market is up approximately 0.53%, driven largely by a downshift in the Greenback. For traders monitoring the HG realtime data, the primary transmission channel remains the inverse correlation with currency and rates. A softer USD typically loosens financial conditions for dollar-priced commodities, while real-rate fluctuations govern the opportunity cost for non-yielding industrial assets.

Technical observers note that the HG live chart is currently testing upper boundary resistance. In these conditions, it is vital to distinguish between macro-led moves and idiosyncratic supply shocks. If this rally is macro-driven, we should see rising correlations across the base metals complex; however, any divergence in copper price performance compared to aluminum or zinc would suggest specific inventory optics or smelter disruptions are at play.

HG Copper Level Map

• Resistance: 6.00
• Decision Line (Pivot): 5.96
• Support: 5.91
• Extension Target: 6.15

As the London window transitions into the New York open, the HG chart live will likely face a macro cross-check. US yields and broad risk sentiment will either reinforce the current impulse or force a mean reversion toward the support at 5.91.

Scenario Analysis

Our base case, with a 64% probability, favors a range trade persisting within the current structure. In this scenario, we expect rotation around the 5.96 pivot. This outlook remains valid as long as we do not see sustained acceptance above 6.00. Traders looking at the HG live rate should watch for price exhaustion near the extremes, as fades remain high-probability setups in the absence of a major fundamental catalyst.

Alternatively, an upside extension (21% probability) could see the copper live market break toward 6.15. This would likely be triggered by tighter physical flow conditions or a significant escalation in supply disruptions. Conversely, a downside reversal (15% probability) would see a break below 5.91 if the USD regains strength or the China demand narrative softens significantly.

Execution and Strategic Outlook

The core of today's strategy is risk-defined execution. For those utilizing the HG price live feed for entries, buying pullbacks near the 5.91 support—provided the dip fails to extend—offers an asymmetric payoff with stops placed below 5.85. For breakout especializados, waiting for a 1-hour candle close above 6.00 on the copper chart followed by a successful retest is the preferred trigger for targeting 6.15.

Looking ahead, the next 24 hours will be critical. The market is currently weighing near-term supply interruptions against a demand ceiling imposed by a restrictive global rates backdrop. Much like the Copper Market Strategy discussed yesterday, consolidation remains the primary theme until the paper market aligns more closely with physical prompt spreads.

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