What is the key resistance level for the MOEX index today?

The primary resistance level to watch is 2,790.06 RUB, with a breakout confirmation required above 2,795.06.

How are energy prices affecting the Russian stock market?

Energy prices (USO -2.32%) are acting as a significant headwind, capping the upside potential for the resource-heavy MOEX index.

What are the downside targets for MOEX if support fails?

If the support at 2,754.43 is breached, the index is likely to test the 2,749.43 - 2,744.43 region.

MOEX Russia Analysis: Resistance Test at 2,790 | FXPremiere

Russian MOEX index shows regime-shift signals as energy headwinds compete with risk-premium compression near the 2,790 resistance level.

The MOEX Russia index exhibited a regime-shift atmosphere during the January 22nd session, characterized by a constructive tone that allowed for the reopening of risk budgets despite persistent energy sector headwinds. While not reaching euphoric levels, the index displayed a clear factor bias as market participants navigated risk-premium compression during the New York open liquidity window.

Market Context and Macro Drivers

The current equity-to-macro link presents a complex backdrop for Russian equities. Energy prices acted as a significant headwind for commodity-linked beta, with USO sliding -2.32%. Given the heavy resource weighting within the MOEX, this energy weakness remains a primary factor capping immediate upside extension. Conversely, long-duration assets saw a bid (TLT +0.48%), effectively containing discount-rate pressure and supporting a more stable valuation environment.

The prevailing market impulse appears to be driven by risk-premium compression rather than a shift in policy repricing. This suggests that while macro volatility persists, internal index dynamics are stabilizing as liquidity improves across primary trading sessions.

Price Levels and Technical Map

The MOEX hit a last price of 2,769.49 RUB, down 0.32% on the day, within an intraday range of 2,754.43 to 2,790.06. Traders should monitor the following technical levels for directional cues:

Resistance: 2,790.06 followed by the 2,770 handle/pivot.
Support: 2,754.43 followed by the 2,760 psychological level.
Invalidation Bands: Sustained moves above 2,795.06 or below 2,749.43.

A practical rule for the current environment is to treat the first breakout as informational and the second as confirmation of the new trend.

Probability Outcomes and Trade Setups

Base Case Scenario (60%)

The most likely outcome is for the index to hold its current range and attempt to grind higher, provided volatility remains offered. This scenario requires the index to stay within the 2,749.43 to 2,795.06 range boundaries.

Bullish Extension (24%)

Acceptance above the 2,790.06 resistance level could lead to an extension toward 2,795.06. A failure to hold above 2,770 would invalidate this bullish momentum.

Bearish Breakdown (16%)

A clean break below 2,754.43 opens the door for a move toward 2,749.43. Reclaiming 2,760 would signify a failed breakdown and a return to range-bound trading.

Microstructure and Liquidity

Liquidity profiles improved significantly into the primary exchange opens. Market microstructure suggests that edge-based trading—buying near support and selling near resistance—remains superior to middle-of-the-range entries, which currently suffer from lower signal-to-noise ratios and increased churn.